A series of alternative and near real-time data show that the economy began to slow on or around June 24. First-time jobless claims, which increased by 1.416 million for the week ending July 18, affirm the evolution of that data and point to risks around a slower pace of workers being recalled to their pre-pandemic jobs. … READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. … READ MORE >
No vaccine, no recovery: The long road back
It is becoming quite clear that absent an accessible and widely distributed vaccine, that there will be no complete economic recovery. What originally was thought to be a 15 week problem has quickly evolved into something that looks more like a 15-month challenge. The premature reopening of the U.S. economy has resulted in an intensification of the pandemic, which is now causing growth in the economy to slow. The spread of the disease has resulted in a rollback of normal social and economic activity that poses significant risk to already subdued utilization of the full capacity to produce around the economy. Thus, any discussion of a full reopening and recovery of the domestic economy must be discussed within the context of a viable timetable that includes a vaccine. … READ MORE >
A national pandemic shifts to the South and Southwest
The intensified spread of the coronavirus in states outside the major metropolitan areas that were hardest hit early on poses significant risk to growth in the second half of 2020. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: 19 show significant increases
The spread of the coronavirus across the South and Southwest and into the Plains became apparent in states with statistically significant increases in initial jobless claims during the week ending July 11. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: 17 straight weeks above 1 million
Initial jobless claims remain stubbornly elevated, which implies persistent weakness in the domestic labor market as the economy absorbs further intensification of the coronavirus pandemic. … READ MORE >
June Consumer Price Index: Inflation not a risk to near-term economic outlook
Rising energy and gasoline prices accounted for roughly half of the 0.6% increase month over month inside the June Consumer Price Index report and should prove transient due to easing demand on the back of an intensifying pandemic. … READ MORE >
Policy uncertainty and the costs of prolonging the pandemic
Loss of income and tax revenue from the 50 million who applied for unemployment benefits during the 16 weeks of the economic shutdown directly contributes to the growing uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Cumulative jobless claims pass 6 million in California and 3 million in Florida
In a week that the cumulative number of people registering for unemployment benefits passed 50 million, California has now processed more than 6 million initial claims and Florida passed the 3 million mark. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: 50 million and counting
Roughly 50 million Americans have filed first-time jobless claims over the past four months, while for the week ending July 4 an additional 1.31 million have filed for unemployment insurance. … READ MORE >