Combined with the forward-looking interest rate forecast included in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC’s statement shows that we are looking at five years at the least of rates remaining pinned to the zero boundary, if not far longer. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A summer so foul
There have been more than 6.7 million cases of coronavirus infections and more than 198,000 deaths, according to the WorldoMeters database. Despite improvement in recent weeks, the rate of infections remains elevated heading into the fall. … READ MORE >
Savings, the money supply and inflation during a pandemic-induced recession
The changing structure of the economy, the integration of advanced technology, and broad demographic changes have contributed to the conditions that have all but ended the idea that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The velocity of money and recession
The broad and deep shock unleashed by the pandemic has caused the velocity of money to decline to a modern low of 1.1. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Updated economic projections
This week, the focus will be on an update of the summary of economic projections, the first look at the Fed’s 2023 forecast and a reiteration that the Fed will keep the policy rate effectively at zero until the economy has recovered. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Higher food costs during the pandemic
The latest consumer price inflation data confirms what we all know – it costs more to eat during the pandemic, but it costs a lot less to drive to your favorite closed restaurant. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Modest increase in prices, inflation expectations well anchored
Strong demand for transportation and energy, which increased by 1.3% and 0.9% in August, were the primary catalysts for the 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index. The all-important core CPI excluding food and energy rose by a similar amount. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims arrive above expectations
First-time initial jobless claims increased by 884,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, higher than the 850,000 anticipated, and by 857,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index update: Late summer upturn in risk
England and the European Union had agreed to an 11-month window ending Dec. 31 to produce what would normally take years of trade negotiations. If those talks were to fail, then England will face tariffs imposed by the E.U., its largest trading partner, once it is pushed out. … READ MORE >
Pandemic economics: Prospects for permanent job losses rising
There has been an alarming increase in permanent job losses over the past six months. Whether and when those jobs reappear will determine the extent of the damage to the economy and, more important, the extent to which household balance sheets and accumulated wealth are impaired. … READ MORE >