Just a few weeks ago, the housing market was poised to take off. Home builders had changed strategy to focus on entry-level homes to serve a growing need in the market. Permits and housing starts were at 10-year highs. Wage growth and unemployment were strong. Interest rates were down to 3.5%, bringing the market back to a level last seen in 2013. It all ... READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, pain goes beyond the hospitality and travel industries
As the human and economic toll of the coronavirus mounts, the real estate industry in North America is wondering where it can safely place its bets. The hospitality industry has taken the brunt of the hit so far, but other sectors of the economy have been nervously watching as the events unfold. Hospitality After the World Health Organization cautioned ... READ MORE >
The new tech economy is all about location, location, location
Economic output in the United States is increasingly revealing a geographic divide, with a greater share of gross domestic product being concentrated in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. In 2018, 31 counties generated 32% of U.S. gross domestic output, according to a report in Bloomberg based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The ... READ MORE >
Betting that size matters: Macy’s closures on trend in retail
The number of store closings in the retail industry is widely publicized. Many media outlets cite data published by Coresight Research, which tracks store openings and closings in the retail ecosystem. Closings reached a record high of 9,302 in 2019, and 2020 is off to an equally troubling start, as Macy’s announced 125 store closings—amounting to roughly ... READ MORE >
Americans face housing affordability crisis as paltry inventory sends costs higher
The decline in housing numbers reported for December on Wednesday is tied to the dwindling available supply of housing for purchase. Pending home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors through December 2019 decreased 4.9% month over month; however, the year-over-year comparison shows a 6.8% gain on an unadjusted basis. While low ... READ MORE >
Housing to start 2020 with a bang
When Boeing announced on Monday that it would halt production of its troubled 737 Max in January, it raised the prospect that the economy could take a hit in early 2020. But Tuesday's announcement of stronger-than-expected housing starts could ease some of those concerns. The Commerce Department reported that November housing starts rose by 3.2% in ... READ MORE >
Is the next mortgage bubble imminent? Not so fast, the debt data tells us
Residential mortgages totaled $9.4 trillion as of June 30 and overall consumer debt reached an all-time high of $13.86 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Residential mortgage debt eclipsed the 2008 peak of $9.29 trillion, fueling the belief among some market watchers that a housing crash apocalypse they’ve been counting on since the ... READ MORE >
Low treasury rate is a boost for home builders, neutral for commercial real estate
Bonds have been declining in recent weeks following a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and expectations of further cuts amid rising concerns over an impending recession. Recession concerns were underscored Wednesday by the inversion of the U.S. and U.K. two- and 10-year yield curves and the fall of 30-year Treasury yields to 2.07%, a record ... READ MORE >
Homebuilder confidence indicators rise but still lag 2018
The homebuilder confidence index rose to 65 in July, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, as a dovish Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates later this month and potentially two more times by the end of 2019. But while confidence has increased, homebuilders are still facing headwinds related to land, labor and tariffs, all of ... READ MORE >
Cautious builders continue to mute housing supply
Key government housing metrics continue to show year-over-year declines. Housing starts fell 11.2% in May, according to the Commerce Department, while permits declined 3.8%. These numbers strongly imply there will be a fall back toward 1.22 million housing completions on an annualized basis in the coming months. Ultimately the housing shortage is not ... READ MORE >