Housing starts rose 7.0% in September due to a rebound in multifamily homes, according to government data released on Wednesday, partly offsetting the sharp drop in August. Still, new residential starts remained a drag on growth in the third quarter amid higher mortgage rates, falling 4.2% on a quarterly ... READ MORE >
Retail sales top forecasts as American consumers stay resilient
U.S. retail sales surged above expectations in September, ending a robust quarter with a bang and raising the possibility that gross domestic product for the third quarter will be higher than expected. Fueled by a healthy level of excess savings--which is around $400 billion in our recent estimate—and ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment hits 5-month low amid elevated inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment this month dropped to the lowest level since May, according to preliminary October data in the University of Michigan survey released Friday. The decline stems from the rebound in inflation, high gasoline prices and weakened expectations due to a looming government shutdown. More ... READ MORE >
Producer inflation rose more than forecast in September
September's producer inflation topped forecasts as energy prices continued to rise. The data continued to suggest that strong economic activity carried over from the summer, in line with our forecast of a 3.1% growth in gross domestic product for the third quarter. Looking ahead, though, as economic ... READ MORE >
Excess savings are critical to the economic expansion’s duration
The American economy has shown resilience in the face of rising interest rates as consumers, bolstered by excess savings built up during the pandemic, have continued to spend. But how long can these savings last? According to our analysis of revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims tick up in a still-tight labor market
Initial claims inched up last week as the impact of the United Auto Workers strike remained muted. New filings increased by 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, lower than the median forecasts of 210,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That continued to suggest a ... READ MORE >
Service sector extends growth in September
The service sector posted another steady month of growth in September as business activities rose at the fastest rate in three months, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday. Except for last December, the sector has expanded in 39 of the past 40 months, a key support for the economic ... READ MORE >
Job openings surge unexpectedly in August
Job openings defied expectations in August, rising to 9.6 million, mostly from a sharp increase of 409,000 in professional and business services, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the increase in labor demand was an encouraging sign for the labor market, we ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sentiment improves for the first time in nearly a year
The manufacturing sector in September expanded for the first time in 10 months on the heels of the strongest production growth since last summer, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday. We believe the sector has passed its bottom and is on an upward trend, given the tailwinds of higher ... READ MORE >
American consumers remain resilient as shutdown looms
Despite a rise in overall inflation because of higher oil prices, core inflation and spending volume were softer in August, adding to the optimism projected by the Federal Reserve recently that the economy can achieve a soft landing. The personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed's preferred ... READ MORE >