New home sales rose unexpectedly in May despite rising mortgage rates and an otherwise cooling housing market. The increase was driven by more supply coming online, pushing prices down for the first time since February. Sales increased by 10.7% on the month to 696,000 new homes annualized, after ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain above pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless claims exceeded the pre-pandemic level for the third week in a row as labor demand eased while more stories of companies laying off workers made headlines. New claims inched down by only 0.9% last week, to 229,000, from an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week, according to ... READ MORE >
The American housing deficit and what it takes to close it
Over the past 15 years, the United States has not built enough houses to keep up with growing demand. The problem intensified during the pandemic as demand skyrocketed because of the shift to working from home and historically low mortgage rates encouraged this move. We estimate that at the end of ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production hits a record amid signs of a slowdown
Industrial production in the United States hit a record in May, but signs of a coming economic slowdown emerged in the report released on Friday by the Federal Reserve. Production volume overall increased by 0.2% on the month for the fifth straight monthly gain. At the same time, manufacturing ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. housing starts and permits plunge
U.S. housing starts and permits plunged in May amid a steep rise in mortgage rates and sour builder sentiment. We expect new housing supply to fall further as mortgage rates continue to rise following the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis-point rate increase on Wednesday, its largest since 1994. Housing ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims exceed pre-pandemic level for second straight week
New filings for jobless benefits last week stayed above the pre-pandemic level for the second week in a row, continuing to signal a resurgence in layoffs as economic activity slowed. With more companies announcing layoffs recently, we expect the upward trend in new jobless claims to continue. There ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales fall as inflation takes a toll
U.S. retail sales declined in May as surges in energy and food prices forced consumers to reduce their spending on vehicles and other discretionary items. With inflation running hot, sales plunged on an inflation-adjusted basis, paring most of April's gains. That implies more headwinds to consumer ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. producer inflation remained elevated
Producer inflation remained elevated in May, even as the overall year-over-year number eased slightly, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. The report adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is meeting this week and considering more aggressive measures to tame inflation. We now ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment drops to record low
Consumer sentiment plunged in June as energy and gasoline prices spiked. The headline consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan dropped to 50.2, the lowest on record. Consumers became more concerned about inflation as both short- and long-term inflation expectations rose, according to a ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise to above pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits surged last week to above the pre-pandemic level for the first time in five months, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday. Behind the increase were a slowdown in hiring and an acceleration in layoffs in recent weeks. New claims for jobless benefits increased by ... READ MORE >