Job openings came in much lower than expected in October, continuing the declining trend that began early last year. Along with a downward revision to September's data, the labor market is now the most balanced it has been since 2021. With 8.7 million job openings in October, the ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector in U.S. contracts in November
The manufacturing sector contracted for the second month in a row in November as lower overall demand and persistent labor shortages took their toll, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Friday. The overall index stayed unchanged at 46.7%, implying a decline. Any figure below 48.7% indicates ... READ MORE >
Inflation slows again, pointing to another rate pause
Inflation in October fell to its slowest pace in more than a year, solidifying the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting in two weeks. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, was unchanged on the month, ... READ MORE >
Durable goods and jobless claims offer a mixed picture of the economy
The impact of elevated interest rates continued to show up in the business equipment spending data, which came in lower than expected in the Commerce Department's data released on Wednesday. Overall orders for durable goods fell by 5.4% in October, led by a 49.6% decline in nondefense aircraft because ... READ MORE >
U.S. existing home sales plunged to their lowest level since 2010
Sales of existing homes in the United States extended their slump for the fifth consecutive month, primarily because of elevated mortgage rates that have dampened both demand and supply. Read more of RSM's insights on real estate and the middle market. In October, sales of existing homes dropped to ... READ MORE >
Industrial production posts biggest drop this year amid strikes
Industrial production dropped by more than expected in October as the United Auto Workers strike was felt in the economy. Production of motor vehicle parts fell by 10%, marking the biggest drop since the beginning of the pandemic. The industrial production index declined by 0.6% on the month, according ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fall in October
Government data for October's retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. While sales slowed, the data came in higher than expected. When considered with an upward revision to September's reading, October's retail sales indicated ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted. But the market and the Federal Reserve should be able to look through those surprises that were largely a short-lived reaction to elevated gasoline ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims ease amid broader signs of a softening labor market
Even as initial jobless claims have stayed relatively steady recently despite major strikes, there are longer-term signs that the labor market is softening. New filings for jobless claims inched down by 3,000 to 217,000 last week, up from 200,000 last month. But continuing claims—a measure of ... READ MORE >