Consumer confidence inched down in November to 109.5, the lowest since March, as inflation continued to take its toll, according to a report from the Conference Board on Tuesday. Now, with the emergence of the omicron variant of the coronavirus, which is not reflected in the November data, consumer confidence is likely to come under even more ... READ MORE >
Trade in 2022: Supply chain challenges and policy implications
Nearly two years after the pandemic shut down the global economy, policymakers are facing a new challenge as global supply chain bottlenecks push up inflation and hamper economic growth. How countries confront these disruptions will have a big impact on economic growth in the coming year. We expect that 2022 will be a year of major policy shifts in ... READ MORE >
Pending home sales in October rebounded to highest in 2021
Pending home sales rebounded by 7.5% in October following a small decline of 2.4% in September, continuing their rise from a recent low in April, according to new data on Monday from the National Association of Realtors. The sharp increase in contract signings month-over-month pointed to housing demand that has regained some momentum as buyers take ... READ MORE >
Personal spending and income rose in October, beating expectations
October's personal income and spending data released by the government on Wednesday gave more reasons to end the short Thanksgiving week on a good note. Personal income rose by 0.5% on the month, beating expectations of a 0.2% increase, while spending rose by a sharp 1.3% in October on a dollar basis. After adjusting for price changes, real spending ... READ MORE >
Surprises in jobless claims and goods trade make up for decline in durable goods orders
Encouraging economic news came from the government's early release of data on Wednesday: Jobless claims dropped to 199,000 last week, the lowest since 1969, while the advance goods trade deficit narrowed significantly to $82.9 billion in October, led by a sharp rise in exports. The jobs data was a surprise, especially when estimates had indicated only an ... READ MORE >
Holiday inventory problem: Some firms are better prepared than others
As supply chain bottlenecks continue to plague the economy, hampering output and raising prices, many analysts have warned that there will not be enough goods in stock for the holiday shopping season. Our new RSM US Supply Chain Index also reached a two-decade low in October, pointing to a problem widespread on the macroeconomic level. While it is true ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Existing home sales inched up in October
Sales of existing homes inched up by 0.8% in October to 6.34 million, carrying some of the momentum in September, when sales jumped by a significant 7.0%, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday. Despite supply constraints and elevated prices, the small increase was in line with pending home sales in August, which ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Decline in initial jobless claims slows
New filings for jobless claims showed little change for the week ending Nov. 13 with a decrease of 1,000 from the prior week to 268,000, according to data from the Labor Department released on Tuesday. The steady weekly declines in new claims in early October have slowed significantly in the first two weeks of November. The most recent data, though, ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Housing starts lag as permits rise
Mixed results came from the housing sector in October as housing starts inched down by 0.7% while building permits rose sharply by 4.0%, according to data from the Census Bureau on Wednesday. Because both are proxies for the future supply of houses, we continue to see that supply has somewhat stabilized in recent months after peaking in January for ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production climbed back in October
Industrial production rebounded in October with a gain of 1.6% after a significant slowdown in September because of Hurricane Ida, pointing to healthy growth for the rest of the year. Output gains were recorded in every category from manufacturing to utilities to mining as constraints in energy and automobile supplies eased. The gains will have major ... READ MORE >