The data for October’s retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims ease amid broader signs of a softening labor market
Continuing claims—a measure of longer-term disruption in the labor market—increased for the seventh straight week to 1.83 million, near the recent high in April. … READ MORE >
Credit sentiment improves in Q3, signaling the worst might be over
No surprise came from the third-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Monday as most major indicators pointed to improvement in lending sentiment. The improvement was likely a direct result of the Federal Reserve’s rate pause in September as the central bank began to rebalance its policy to a less hawkish stance. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims edge up as labor market remains strong
New claims for jobless benefits rose to 217,000 last week, yet they remained below the pre-pandemic level. … READ MORE >
Job openings top estimates amid sharp drop in manufacturing
Job openings edged up in September as labor demand remained strong while the manufacturing sector declined at a faster rate than expected. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage inflation metric tops forecast
The employment cost index for the third quarter showed that labor costs rose 1.1% higher than the forecast of 1.0% and were higher than the pre-pandemic average of 0.6%. … READ MORE >
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
Friday’s data on spending and income, together with recent data on gross domestic product, have pointed to a booming economy that should push back any speculation for an imminent recession. … READ MORE >
Existing home sales fall to the lowest level since 2010
Demand for existing homes has plunged in six out of seven months since February, falling to 3.96 million in September. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits remain a drag on third-quarter growth
Housing starts rose 7.0% in September due to a rebound in multifamily homes, partly offsetting the sharp drop in August. Still, new residential starts remained a drag on growth in the third quarter amid higher mortgage rates, falling 4.2% on a quarterly basis. … READ MORE >