Jobless claims last week rose back up to 242,000 after a brief one-week drop, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The increase underscored the upward trend in new filings for jobless benefits as the labor market continued to soften. New claims have remained consistently above the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Job openings fell in March as the labor market softened
Job openings fell to 9.6 million in March from almost 10 million in February, a clear sign that the labor market is softening as the economy slows down. Still, there were 1.6 openings available for each unemployed worker on the month, down only slightly from 1.7 in February, according to data ... READ MORE >
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
As the Bank of Canada tries to tame inflation and simultaneously guide the economy to a soft landing, most market participants are skeptical that it can pull off the feat. After months of steep interest rate increases, the higher borrowing costs are only beginning to be felt in Canada's real ... READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve's key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected Friday, helping to seal the deal on the central bank's 10th consecutive rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. The Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the quarter, and the ... READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. It is now clear that the nonresidential component of private investment has caught up ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops to lowest level since July 2022
Consumer confidence in April dipped to the lowest level since last July, driven by the deterioration in economic expectations as recession concerns mount. The top-line confidence index in April fell to 101.3 from 104.0 in March, while the expectations index dropped sharply to 68.1 from 74.0, ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise amid labor market slowdowns
New filings for jobless benefits rose for the third straight week to a near 18-month high, adding more signs of a slowdown in the labor market, one of the last defenses against a recession. New claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, increased by 2.1% to 245,000 for the week ending April ... READ MORE >
Canadian inflation fell to lowest since August 2021
Canada’s inflation rate dropped to 4.3% in March on an annual basis from 5.4% in the prior month, driven largely by comparisons to the surging energy and food prices of a year ago, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. While disinflation was expected as the Bank of ... READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. If interest rate increases take six to 12 months to be felt in the economy—the accepted wisdom before the pandemic—then it is likely ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
New data on the labor market and inflation released on Thursday continued to show a slowing economy as it heads to a likely recession. For the Federal Reserve, that data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. Whether to have that ... READ MORE >