The financial shock affecting the U.S. economy will most likely result in tightened lending standards, tip the economy into recession this year and cause mild disinflation. The quandary faced by the Federal Reserve—balancing price stability, full employment and financial stability—requires an ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell in March, before the financial turmoil
Consumer sentiment in March dropped to 63.4 from 67 as consumers’ confidence in the current economic conditions and their expectations both worsened on the month, according to the University of Michigan’s survey released Friday. The decline in sentiment, though, was not influenced by the ... READ MORE >
How many jobs need to be sacrificed to tame inflation? Cost is rising, RSM models show.
Events are outpacing the best-laid plans of policymakers. The current turmoil in the financial sector will place constraints on the Federal Reserve’s efforts to restore price stability. Our research indicates that the Fed, facing persistent inflation, will for now have to accept a ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and housing starts come in hotter than expected
Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. New jobless claims fell by 20,000 last week to 192,000 following an unexpected spike in the previous week, ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. Still, looking underneath the top-line numbers and through seasonal fluctuations, spending at retail stores remained solid. Wednesday’s ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job gains came in hotter than expected as wage growth spiked
February's jobs data in Canada showed a still-strong labor market that did not offer any relief in terms of keeping inflation under control. The net change in total employment dropped to 21,800 from a whopping 150,000 increase in January yet remained above the expectations of only ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest level since December
New claims for jobless benefits last week came in hotter than expected at 211,000, significantly higher than the 190,000 of the previous week, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday. The increase was in line with expectations following a large number of high-profile layoff announcements ... READ MORE >
The debt ceiling stand-off: Frequently asked questions
As middle market businesses weigh the costs of the stand-off over raising the nation's debt ceiling, we offer some answers to frequently asked questions about how the dispute will play out. What is the debt ceiling? The debt ceiling sets a limit on how much debt the U.S. government can incur. ... READ MORE >
Job openings remained plentiful in January, adding to pressure on the Fed
Job openings fell in January yet still came in hotter than expected, offering the Federal Reserve no relief in its fight against inflation. The central bank faces a crucial decision when it meets in two weeks: Whether to maintain its current peak policy rate of 5.5%, as it had announced a few ... READ MORE >
U.S. service sector expands in back-to-back months
The service sector continued its strong growth in February on the heels of robust new orders, business activity and improvement in inventories. The U.S. service purchasing managers index registered at 55.1, only slightly lower than the 55.2 in January, according data released Friday by the ... READ MORE >