A recession, albeit mild and brief, is most likely on the horizon. Our forecast puts the chance of a recession at 60% by the middle of the year, with the downturn hitting the economy unevenly. … READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve’s key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected, helping to seal the deal on another rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops to lowest level since July 2022
Consumer confidence in April dipped to the lowest level since last July, driven by the deterioration in economic expectations as recession concerns mount. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise amid labor market slowdowns
New claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, increased by 2.1% to 245,000 for the week ending April 15—about 12.9% higher than a year ago. … READ MORE >
Canadian inflation fell to lowest since August 2021
Canada’s inflation rate dropped to 4.3% in March on an annual basis from 5.4% in the prior month, driven largely by comparisons to the surging energy and food prices of a year ago. … READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
For the Federal Reserve, the new data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. … READ MORE >
Canada jobs report tops forecasts, showing resilience amid recession fears
Canada’s March job report came out hotter than expected, adding more pressure on the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation. … READ MORE >
Are the good times in consumer spending coming to an end?
Consumers have shown remarkable resilience as the economy has rebounded from the depths of the pandemic, but that could be changing. … READ MORE >