Consumer sentiment bounced off a historical low to 51.1 in July from 50.0 in June as gasoline prices eased markedly. That resulted in lower readings for inflation expectations for both the short-term one-year outlook and the long-term five- to 10-year expectations, according to survey data released by ... READ MORE >
Retail sales rebounded in June amid elevated inflation
Retail sales posted solid growth in June yet likely failed to offset sky-high inflation for the second straight month, government data showed on Friday. Most of the increases came from higher gasoline prices in the first half of June, not stronger demand. Retail sales rose by 1.0% in June before ... READ MORE >
Latest jobless claims and producer inflation show upside surprises
New filings for jobless benefits last week rose by 3.8% to 244,000—the highest level since November, according to government data released Thursday. The steady increase in new jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, were in line with hiring freezes and layoff announcements coming from the ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Service sector grows at slowest pace in two years
The service sector continued to moderate, despite the current shift from spending on goods to services. Higher inflation, mostly from energy and food prices, kept consumers away from spending more on discretionary services. The Institute for Supply Management's service index inched down to 55.3 in ... READ MORE >
Job openings show signs of a slowdown
Job openings declined for the second straight month in May as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes slowed down overall demand. Still, the level of job vacancies—a proxy for labor demand—remained near a record high, which, in our view, was a sign of an overheated labor market If anything, the job openings ... READ MORE >
Inflation outpaces consumer spending for the first time this year
Personal spending declined on an inflation-adjusted basis in May as spikes in gasoline and food prices depressed consumer sentiment and dampened spending on other discretionary items. If the trend continues, we should expect spending volume in June to decline further, adding more downside risks to our ... READ MORE >
New home sales rise unexpectedly despite higher mortgage rates
New home sales rose unexpectedly in May despite rising mortgage rates and an otherwise cooling housing market. The increase was driven by more supply coming online, pushing prices down for the first time since February. Sales increased by 10.7% on the month to 696,000 new homes annualized, after ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain above pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless claims exceeded the pre-pandemic level for the third week in a row as labor demand eased while more stories of companies laying off workers made headlines. New claims inched down by only 0.9% last week, to 229,000, from an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week, according to ... READ MORE >
The American housing deficit and what it takes to close it
Over the past 15 years, the United States has not built enough houses to keep up with growing demand. The problem intensified during the pandemic as demand skyrocketed because of the shift to working from home and historically low mortgage rates encouraged this move. We estimate that at the end of ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production hits a record amid signs of a slowdown
Industrial production in the United States hit a record in May, but signs of a coming economic slowdown emerged in the report released on Friday by the Federal Reserve. Production volume overall increased by 0.2% on the month for the fifth straight monthly gain. At the same time, manufacturing ... READ MORE >