U.S. housing starts and permits plunged in May amid a steep rise in mortgage rates and sour builder sentiment. We expect new housing supply to fall further as mortgage rates continue to rise following the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis-point rate increase on Wednesday, its largest since 1994. Housing ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims exceed pre-pandemic level for second straight week
New filings for jobless benefits last week stayed above the pre-pandemic level for the second week in a row, continuing to signal a resurgence in layoffs as economic activity slowed. With more companies announcing layoffs recently, we expect the upward trend in new jobless claims to continue. There ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales fall as inflation takes a toll
U.S. retail sales declined in May as surges in energy and food prices forced consumers to reduce their spending on vehicles and other discretionary items. With inflation running hot, sales plunged on an inflation-adjusted basis, paring most of April's gains. That implies more headwinds to consumer ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. producer inflation remained elevated
Producer inflation remained elevated in May, even as the overall year-over-year number eased slightly, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. The report adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is meeting this week and considering more aggressive measures to tame inflation. We now ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment drops to record low
Consumer sentiment plunged in June as energy and gasoline prices spiked. The headline consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan dropped to 50.2, the lowest on record. Consumers became more concerned about inflation as both short- and long-term inflation expectations rose, according to a ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise to above pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits surged last week to above the pre-pandemic level for the first time in five months, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday. Behind the increase were a slowdown in hiring and an acceleration in layoffs in recent weeks. New claims for jobless benefits increased by ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Service sector grew more slowly in May
The service sector grew more slowly in May as production and prices cooled, according to a report from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday. Demand, however, remained strong as consumers continued to shift spending from goods to services, especially as the summer approaches. We expect the ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Jobless claims fall amid tight labor market
Initial jobless claims fell by 5.2% last week to 200,000, a reflection of the continuing tight labor market as layoffs remain near a multidecade low, according to government data released Thursday. We remain confident that initial jobless claims have reached bottom in April. We expect a slow upward ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: Inventory-led improvement in April
Supply chain bottlenecks improved in April yet remained significantly underwater. At the current pace, a full recovery will not take place until the first half of next year, implying that inflation will remain above the 2% target rate for the rest of this year and much of next year. While the impact ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector grew steadily in May
The manufacturing sector expanded at the slightly faster rate in May as demand remained strong, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday. The data will help alleviate some of the concern over an imminent recession as our recent RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index dipped ... READ MORE >