Retail sales growth fell behind inflation increases in February, posting a weak 0.3% increase, as growth slowed down in most categories except gasoline stations. Consumer rationing because of rising gasoline prices already took place before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Excluding sales at the gas ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Producer prices fall, but not for long
Producer prices for final goods decelerated sharply in February as price gains for services and construction slowed down. Producer prices increased by 0.8% on the month, down from a 1.2% increase in January while registering a 10% rise in back-to-back months compared to a year ago, the Bureau of Labor ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment slides amid energy shock
Consumer sentiment slid further in March, falling by 3.1 points from February amid spikes in oil and gasoline prices. The University of Michigan sentiment gauge dropped to 59.7, an 11-year low, according to data released Friday. The decline was only slightly lower than our forecast of a 3.2-point ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Initial jobless claims inch up
Initial jobless claims inched up by 11,000 last week, most likely a temporary spike as most of the increase came from New York and California with 16,000 and 6,000 new claims, respectively, according to government data released Thursday. Despite the normal fluctuation of the claims data, new filings ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Job openings surpass 11 million in back-to-back months
The scramble by employers to find workers continued amid a historically tight labor market in January, as employers reported 11.3 million job openings for the month, according to government data released on Wednesday. That would have been the highest on record, except that December's figure was revised ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. trade deficit nears $90 billion, a record
The United States trade deficit reached a record high in January as strong domestic demand continued to push imports higher, especially oil, while exports were dampened by the omicron surge which reduced production and limited travel. The trade deficit widened 9.4% in January to $89.7 billion, ... READ MORE >
Energy shock will hit low-income Americans the hardest
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent oil prices skyrocketing to their highest level since 2008. In fewer than 10 days, oil prices have increased by 30%, surpassing our recent base-line model for a 20% oil price shock, which we estimated would push inflation above 10% this year. Despite such a ... READ MORE >
Service sector moderated amid rising prices and labor crunch
The service sector registered slower growth in February as inflation and labor shortages remained top concerns, according to a report from the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. The services purchasing managers’ index declined 3.4 percentage points to 56.5 on the month, but for the 21st month ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims at lowest point since December as omicron retreats
New filings for jobless benefits fell below the pre-pandemic level for the first time since December as the economy continued to recover from the omicron surge, according to government data released Thursday. New filings—a proxy for layoffs—dropped to 215,000 for the week ending Feb. 26 from an ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Manufacturing grows as supply chains improve
The manufacturing sector expanded in February as the economy continued a strong rebound. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose 1 percentage point to 58.6 in February, registering the 21st consecutive month of growth, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Tuesday. The sector has ... READ MORE >