England and the European Union had agreed to an 11-month window ending Dec. 31 to produce what would normally take years of trade negotiations. If those talks were to fail, then England will face tariffs imposed by the E.U., its largest trading partner, once it is pushed out. … READ MORE >
Blog
CHART OF THE DAY: Middle market retailers pay close attention to inflation as pandemic progresses
Many RSM clients have reported that inflation has been, and continues to be top of mind for them. The data supports what we’ve heard. Throughout the pandemic, the cost of food at home has been the mirror image of the Consumer Price index. … READ MORE >
Pandemic economics: Prospects for permanent job losses rising
There has been an alarming increase in permanent job losses over the past six months. Whether and when those jobs reappear will determine the extent of the damage to the economy and, more important, the extent to which household balance sheets and accumulated wealth are impaired. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Financial conditions deteriorate as stock market pulls back
U.S. financial conditions have deteriorated in recent days as investors have pulled back on riskier assets, causing the S&P 500 to shed 4.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 3.32% and the NASDAQ to fall 6.1% over the past three trading sessions. As these conditions have eased, the risk to the economy has grown. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions tightening due to equities rout
U.S. financial conditions have tightened in recent days as investors have pulled back on riskier assets, a decline that if it continues implies a risk to the nascent U.S. economic rebound. … READ MORE >
Oil prices show unprecedented volatility in 2020, and a path to recovery remains uncertain
The unprecedented imbalance the oil market has experienced for much of 2020 has garnered extraordinary responses from both oil producers and policymakers. Oil and gas companies have been forced to reposition themselves during the downturn in order to prepare for a comeback. … READ MORE >
August U.S. employment report: Strong hiring continues for fourth month
The return of workers to their jobs continued at a strong pace in August, with 1.371 million jobs added, including 238,000 temporary census workers. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Americans with no job for 27 weeks or more rises sharply
Labor market studies by the Federal Reserve show that individuals who experience joblessness for more than 26 weeks face increasing risk of becoming permanently detached from the labor force, contributing to structural unemployment in the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Mixed picture for initial jobless claims in week ended Aug. 29
The number of initial jobless claims fell in the week ended Aug. 29 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 from 1.01 million in the prior week. But data from the Labor Department, which announced changes to its methodology on Thursday to factor out pandemic distortions, doesn’t tell the whole picture. Despite the week over week decline in claims, the number of people seeking relief from other programs, including a government-sponsored pandemic relief program, were up. … READ MORE >
Methodological changes to jobless claims data are behind their slower pace
First-time jobless claims declined to a seasonally adjusted rate of 881,000 for the week ending Aug. 29, with non-seasonally adjusted claims falling to 833,000 as the Department of Labor introduced a new way to estimate the pace of firings in the domestic labor market. … READ MORE >