The disruption has led senior leaders at financial services firms to ask some basic questions, from how do we keep our employees safe, to what does our near-term financial health look like, to what if this crisis continues over the long-term. … READ MORE >
Blog
Dealing with disruptions: Policy options for addressing exogenous shocks
The outbreak of the coronavirus and other economic threats add up to a series of supply, demand and financial shocks that now threaten normal life and commercial activity throughout the global community. … READ MORE >
US February jobs report–the last waltz before more sobering data
Policymakers and investors should take one last good look at the February U.S. employment data because it effectively represents the end of the multi-year string of strong monthly jobs reports. From here on in, the focus will shift to weekly first-time initial jobless claims and filings for unemployment insurance. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus impact on the consumer products ecosystem
In a very short period of time, the COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on economies throughout the world and across all industries and sectors. The earliest stages of the U.S. consumer supply chain are heavily dependent upon China.
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The RSM Brexit Stress Index shoots up, reflecting coronavirus supply shock concern
Following the U.K.’s departure from the European Union a month ago, markets are bracing for a global health crisis and the accompanying supply shock. The RSM Brexit Stress Index — which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s departure from Europe’s common market – has shot up in the past two weeks from zero to 1.15 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. … READ MORE >
How ESG is affecting the real estate and construction industries
As public pressure builds for industries to adhere to environmental, social and governance standards, real estate and construction are no exception. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate in response to health crisis
Canada’s central bank moved aggressively to drop its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 1.25%, following action taken by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Last estimate before coronavirus impact
We expect an increase of 178,000 in total employment when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first estimate of nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. … READ MORE >
Initial unemployment claims, coronavirus and recession probabilities
Over the next few weeks, policymakers will receive high frequency data that will capture supply and demand shocks that are going to cascade throughout the economy. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, demand destruction will set in
We are now beginning to observe some demand destruction around the public health crisis, and we expect this will be the major narrative once data begins to arrive in coming weeks. … READ MORE >