Soon after the U.S. July Fourth holiday last year, the United States–China trade dispute saw significant escalation, and semiconductors were placed on the tariff list. This week, again following Independence Day, the industry has fallen prey to rising trade tensions, as Japan threatens to remove preferential status for exports of computer chips and other specialized materials to South Korea. … READ MORE >
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Demand for manufacturing workers remains robust, despite May’s decline in U.S. job openings
Manufacturing positions in the United States are among the hardest to fill as the labor market remains tight, a key government report released on Tuesday shows. … READ MORE >
Jobs rebound likely to fade in second half of year
The U.S. economy generated 224,000 jobs in June driven by solid increases in education and health, business services, good producing and construction jobs. … READ MORE >
Tug-of-(Trade)-War: RSM Brexit Stress Index eases for week
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased this week, as global equity markets pushed higher on news of a rapprochement among the parties in the U.S.-China trade war and anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Semiconductor rally punctuated by news that Huawei permitted as US customer
The semiconductor market got a boost following the administration’s decision on June 29 to allow U.S. chipmakers to supply products to Chinese tech giant Huawei. Industry lobbyists had argued that restricting free trade by blacklisting Huawei would have hurt the U.S. economy. … READ MORE >
June US employment preview–slower pace of growth expected for Q2
We expect the labor market will reflect a slower pace of growth through the second quarter, resulting in a below-consensus estimate (165,000) net increase in total employment of 147,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. In our estimation, the primary narrative emerging from the June report will be sustained deceleration of hiring in the household survey… … READ MORE >
Factory orders stall in latest Institute for Supply Management Index
The Institute for Supply Management index—a key gauge of U.S. factory activity—dropped to 51.7 in June, from 52.1 a month earlier, pulled lower primarily by economic uncertainty over trade issues. The index posted its third straight monthly decline and the weakest level since October 2016. … READ MORE >
Real estate investors hope for the best, prepare for the worst—KAYO conference
“Economic cycles and real estate cycles don’t die of old age,” writes Laura Dietzel, RSM senior real estate analyst. “Most of the top industry investors, executives and advisors at the (Kayo) conference agreed that the industry currently finds itself in a mature part of the cycle, as property values throughout the country and across asset classes remain richly priced.” … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Lower highs and lower lows
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed slightly higher this week, as political talk centers on whether Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party front runner favored to take over as U.K. Prime Minister, can make good on his promise of removing Britain from the European Union with or without a deal. … READ MORE >
As consumers gain leverage, lower health care deductibles are forthcoming
Over the past decade, higher deductibles have become standard for the majority of health care plans in the United States. That standard could change, however, as consumers gain a louder voice in the health care value equation. … READ MORE >