An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. … READ MORE >
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The Real Economy, June issue, is out now
What are the real costs of trade disputes to the overall economy, sectors such as agriculture and to everyday consumers? RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas lays out the comprehensive impact in the June issue of The Real Economy. “Recent scholarly research has validated concerns about the comprehensive absorption of … … READ MORE >
Recession watch: What the bond market is saying about prospects for growth
The bond market is clearly signaling that absent a cessation of trade hostilities or a shift in monetary policy, we are now late in the business cycle. … READ MORE >
Mexico tariff poised to hurt California tech economy
A proposed new tariff on Mexican imports could have a devastating impact on California’s technology sector; the state imports a disproportionate amount of goods from the United States’ southern trading partner and conversely exports a large amount of products over the border. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy and the path of interest rates: Fed funds rate to decline by 50 basis points in 2019
Based on recent economic data and policy risk around deteriorating global trade conditions, we now expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the policy rate to a range of 1.75 to 2 percent from 2.25 to 2.5 percent by the end of 2019. … READ MORE >
U.S. manufacturing index registers lowest level since October 2016
A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in May to the lowest level since October 2016. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: strong top line, focus on manufacturing employment
The focus of the May employment report will likely provide a contrast between underlying strength in the top line, which we expect to show a gain of 175,000 jobs in the month and the slowing of hiring in the manufacturing sector, which has produced a net gain of only 12,000 jobs over the past three months. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index rises amid political uncertainty
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, closing at 0.60 from 0.53 last Friday, as the markets digest the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, effective June 7. … READ MORE >
A data scientist could keep Amazon from kicking you off its platform
On May 28, Bloomberg reported that Amazon may stop taking wholesale orders from smaller vendors, a move intended to drive efficiencies and ensure that the tech giant maintains healthy supplies of its most in-demand products. Whether or not this report is true, it begs a broader question: What is your digital strategy and how does Amazon fit into it? … READ MORE >
Data breaches are down but more effective
While the number of data breaches per year has doubled in the last decade, there were significantly fewer breaches in 2018 compared to 2017 (see chart below). Unfortunately, cybercriminals have had greater success in accessing sensitive personal and corporate data. … READ MORE >