For the third time in 20 years, the bottom has fallen out of oil prices, which will most likely have enormous implications for the economies of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and have enormous potential geopolitical ramifications. … READ MORE >
Canada
CHART OF THE DAY: Plunging private equity deal flow in Canada
The economic distress from the coronavirus pandemic is hitting the Canadian private equity market hard. The number of deals reached in Canada this year through Oct. 6 fell to 194, which at that pace would represent a 60% decline from 2019. … READ MORE >
Tracking the coronavirus: Preparing for the deluge
Given that many states do not report on weekends, these figures likely understate the true level of infection. At the current rate of spread, and unless the public adheres to strict social distancing practices, the RSM model looks for the total number of U.S. cases to surpass 7.8 million by the second week of October. … READ MORE >
More promise, more problems: Cyberattacks threaten life sciences companies researching COVID-19 vaccine
Picture this scenario: Researchers at a biotech company are working tirelessly on a potential coronavirus vaccine and planning to start a phase three clinical trial soon. This work results in more visibility for the company, and an influx of capital investment. But with that greater visibility and investment comes added … … READ MORE >
Canada jobs: Canadian economy surprises again, regional disparities remain, outlook uncertain
New jobs data showed that the Canadian economy added another 952,900 jobs in the month of June, exceeding expectations by a large margin. High frequency and alternative indicators of economic activity such as restaurant bookings, public transportation use and traffic congestion levels had predicted a large increase, as had some traditional measures like housing starts, which increased significantly in June. … READ MORE >
Surprise increase in jobs, but some worrying signs for the Canadian economy
Canada is coming back on line. Social distancing measures have been eased; “realer” time and high frequency indicators like traffic levels, public transportation use and restaurant bookings have increased. Canada added 289,600 jobs in the month of May, when economists had expected a decline of 500,000. The unemployment rate increased to 13.7%, but this was due to more people looking for work. … READ MORE >
Sources of deflation: Measuring distress in the real economy and financial markets
The magnitude of the economic shocks strongly implies that the probability of a general decline in prices — a dynamic known as deflation — is rising. This is happening despite $3.4 trillion in liquidity commitments and $2.89 trillion in fiscal support. … READ MORE >
Canada should brace for a long recovery: More than 1 million job losses in March
In the month of March the Canadian economy shed over 1 million jobs in comparison to a consensus forecast of 500,000 job losses. … READ MORE >
The swift and significant monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coronavirus
March 2020 has been a month for the ages – one that fiscal and monetary policymakers will never forget. Congress put forward roughly $2.2 trillion, or equal to 11.4% of gross domestic product, in fiscal aid to address current and coming economic difficulties around the country. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus pandemic hinders global automotive supply chains
With the recent passage of “phase one” of a trade agreement between the United States and China and the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), 2020 was supposed to be a transitional year for the global auto industry. Analysts had expectations that sales in the sector had bottomed out … … READ MORE >