With Halloween in the rear-view mirror and winter holiday decorations in department stores in full swing, RSM forecasts nominal retail sales from October through December will increase nearly 5.0% on a year-over-year basis. Given that many promotional events began in early October, consistent with ... READ MORE >
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan payments present modest drag on growth
The restarting of student loan repayments will not cause a large drag on overall spending or economic growth in the final quarter of the year. Despite the hype and scare tactics around a well-telegraphed restart date, we estimate that it will result in only a 0.3 percentage point drag on gross ... READ MORE >
Back-to-school outlook: What can we expect for holiday shopping?
In our four-part blog series, RSM’s senior industry analysts explore back-to-school shopping trends and the impact on consumer businesses. Many analysts use back-to-school shopping as an indication for how holiday sales will trend, a theory confirmed on Walmart’s recent earnings call. If July’s ... READ MORE >
Consumer products M&A cooled in the first half
Merger and acquisition activity among consumer products companies took a breather in the first half of the year as valuations were reset amid rising interest rates. Closed deal activity declined by more than 25% over the same period a year earlier, driven not only by the reset in valuations but ... READ MORE >
July retail sales show upside surprise, helped by discounting and back-to-school events: RSM analyst perspective
Retail sales rose 0.7% in July from the prior month, beating analysts’ expectations for a 0.4% rise, likely driven by a series of July discount events at major retailers and the start of back-to-school shopping. The rise marked the fourth consecutive month of increases. Stripping out spending on gas, ... READ MORE >
Back-to-school outlook: Inventory levels point to sustained discounting strategies
In our four-part blog series, RSM’s senior industry analysts explore back-to-school shopping trends and the impact on consumer businesses. Retailers will continue discounting through the back-to-school shopping season and beyond. Here’s why. Beginning the summer of 2022, both companies and investors ... READ MORE >
Are the good times in consumer spending coming to an end?
American consumers have shown remarkable resilience as the economy has rebounded from the depths of the pandemic. Overall spending has remained robust, despite elevated inflation and rising interest rates. But that could be changing. Lower-income consumers have started to show cracks in demand, and that ... READ MORE >
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
With demand remaining strong, middle market firms have been increasing their inventories during the current quarter, with just under a majority expecting to do so over the next six months, according to the RSM US Middle Market Business Index. Inventories are now growing at twice the rate of ... READ MORE >
Consumer products M&A insights
The market for mergers and acquisitions in the consumer products industry has cooled from the frothy levels of a year ago. Closed deal activity slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter, according to data from PitchBook. This trend has continued as investors remain cautious given the uncertain economic ... READ MORE >
Consumer products holiday season insights: Thanksgiving holiday sees consumers continue to spend
Over the Thanksgiving weekend, consumers showed they are not yet ready to pull back on the robust spending that has driven economic activity over the last three years. Consumers equipped with $1.8 trillion of excess savings, compared with the first quarter in 2020 (approximately 80% held by the upper two ... READ MORE >