The composition of the growth was nothing short of virtuous. Household consumption rose by 11.8%, outlays on equipment grew by 13%, intellectual property by 10.8% and software investment increased by $13.8 billion – all of which helped drive the growth. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
FOMC July meeting: Dovish monetary policy remains in place
While the Federal Reserve delivered on the dovish expectations implied by pricing action and market talk, the brief period of extreme optimism inside policy circles has clearly ended. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Confirmation of recovery despite supply chain constraints
July marks the 12th consecutive month of increasing confidence in the manufacturing sector, with sentiment now reaching more than two standard deviations above what would be considered normal. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: The rise of the delta variant
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that because of its transmissibility, the delta variant of the virus is now responsible for more than 83% of COVID-19 infections. Sixteen weeks ago, what was then referred to as the UK variant accounted for fewer than 1% of infections. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Expect more talk, less action at the July meeting
Inflationary risk and the delta variant of the coronavirus will be front and center at next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, while policy changes will take a back seat. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Port activity continues its record pace as supply chain normalizes
The increases in seaport activity and the nationwide distribution of goods signal growing confidence in a robust U.S. recovery. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims back above 400,000 for the first time in four weeks
First-time jobless claims increased by 51,000 to 419,000 for the week ending July 3, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Negative-yielding debt back above $15 trillion globally as risk of delta variant rises
Over the past 90 days, rising economic and social risks linked to the Delta variant around the world have rattled investors and pushed them back into the safety of government-issued debt. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Foreign investment in U.S. securities rebounds
The latest data from the Treasury International Capital System indicates a 65% increase in net foreign long-term portfolio investment in U.S. securities compared to the imposition of tariffs on China in July 2018, and a 138% increase since February 2019, the month before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Rising household debt vs. wealth: Cause for concern, or the foundation of economic renewal?
As the economy emerges from the pandemic, concerns about a debt hangover like the one that followed the financial crisis are proliferating. But with American household balance sheets the strongest in decades, we see little chance of a consumer debt hangover interrupting the current expansion anytime soon. … READ MORE >