The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index, at roughly one standard deviation above neutral financial conditions, shows that the appetite to take risk is supporting economic growth and recovery. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Capital goods shipments maintain upward trajectory
Monthly shipments of nondefense capital goods increased by nearly 5% during the first three months of the year compared to the months before the pandemic-induced economic shutdown. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Strong automobile demand amid supply chain disruptions
The demand for automobiles continues to rise amid reports of chip shortages that are hurting production. This suggests that there will be strong profit margins in the auto manufacturing sector despite the missed opportunities to meet robust demand. … READ MORE >
Employment report preview: Expect a gain of 1.4 million jobs in April
With nearly 150 million Americans having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, we expect a net increase in employment of roughly 1.4 million jobs in April, with risk of a much larger gain in private-sector employment. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%. … READ MORE >
Employment in the middle market is set for reconstruction following a difficult year
Forward-looking components in the RSM US Middle Market Business Index imply that midsize firms are ready to expand hiring and bolster compensation over the next six months as the real economy reopens and enters a hyper-competitive post-pandemic period. … READ MORE >
Personal income rises 21.1% in March, with savings up 27.6%
The impact of the $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid put on the table this year bolstered U.S. personal income by a record 21.1% in March, resulting in a 4.2% increase in personal spending. Income excluding government transfers increased by 0.9% on the month. Compensation increased by 1%, while wages and … … READ MORE >
Fed policy decision: Steady as U.S. economy at inflection point
The Federal Reserve made no substantial changes on Wednesday to the path of interest rates, its monthly $120 billion in asset purchases, overnight interest rates or interest paid on excess reserves. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Output gap to close in current quarter, an extraordinary achievement
We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the current quarter. Given the size of the shock to the real economy, and the depth and breadth of the crisis, this recovery is remarkable. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Surging RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index implies a robust recovery
For the second month in a row, manufacturers’ optimism surged, which implies further acceleration in overall industrial production and manufacturing conditions. … READ MORE >