Intermodal rail freight is in the midst of a strong recovery in another sign that the manufacturing sector and the economy have entered the early stages of what we expect to be a robust expansion this year. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Consumer Price Index: Inflation begins its temporary march upward
Increases in energy and transportation costs that were made more extreme by comparisons to last year’s economic downturn helped push the Consumer Price Index higher at an annual rate of 2.6% in March. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The CLO market is back
The volume of CLO issuances over the past two quarters has rebounded to levels last seen in 2019, and spreads have narrowed to pre-pandemic levels as pricing benefited from low interest rates, even with the recent surges in Treasury yields. … READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are arguably enough positive indications to begin planning for a return to normal commercial activity. Here is a sampling of what’s to come, or better put, what the data is suggesting. … READ MORE >
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. … READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
We are proposing the development of an independent infrastructure bank that would operate as the fiscal equivalent of the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Understanding what is involved in a $2 trillion infrastructure project
A project that modernizes the national infrastructure means increased jobs, productivity and growth, all of which will result in a meaningful increase in the living standards for Americans. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rational exuberance and the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
The manufacturing sector is signaling extreme confidence in a rapid end to the pandemic-induced economic shutdown and to the global manufacturing recession that preceded it. … READ MORE >
March employment preview: Expect a gain of 1 million jobs
We expect a net increase in total employment of 1 million, with risk of a much larger gain, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8% when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths is creating preconditions for what we expect to be a robust three-year economic recovery in the United Kingdom. This is captured by the recent improvement in domestic financial conditions to just under one standard deviation above neutral. … READ MORE >