During the past few decades, as the economy has shifted from one based on manufacturing to one based on information and digital technologies, this traditionally inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation as shown in the Phillips curve has flattened. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.2% for February understates the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
February employment report: The devil really is in the details
The major policy takeaway from the new report is that there has not been a dramatic acceleration in hiring, despite the top-line gain of 379,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Powell statement: Market challenging Fed’s credibility on inflation targeting
The knee-jerk market response that sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.54% during Thursday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell implies that the Fed may have to act to dampen yields at the long end of the curve. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of March 1
In this week’s roundup we look at new data coming out of the U.K. and Israel on their COVID-19 vaccination programs’ results. We also highlight improvements in public perception of the pharmaceutical industry, a new executive order on supply chains and more. … READ MORE >
February jobs preview: Winter doldrums ahead of a springtime rebound
We expect a total increase in employment of 105,000 jobs for February—with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3%—when the Labor Department releases its monthly data on Friday. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation outlook: Don’t believe the hype
Concerns about inflation risk are premature and overblown. Current monetary policy is well-positioned to support the reflation of the domestic economy, a return to full economic potential later this year and full employment over the next three years. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A sustained recovery as rebound takes shape
For the seventh consecutive month, the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index increased, showing above-normal manufacturing sentiment. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Closing out the gap year
A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found sharp downturns last year in enrollments of freshman at four-year and two-year public colleges, and a moderate downturn at private four-year nonprofit colleges. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Feb. 22
In this week’s roundup we look at the latest news on Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine, a federal effort to expand genomic sequencing to track new COVID-19 variants, a major merger in the industry, and more.
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