Business development companies are still lagging the market in a sign of persisting concern over the performance of loans to small and midsize businesses. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Pandemic economics, in 14 charts
The bond market, and not the equity market, provides perhaps the best assessment of the future of the economy. And these days, no matter how you parse the data, the bond market is telling a clear story: The corporate sector and the broader economy remain at risk. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention
Pandemic economics has brought about an interesting conundrum: The pace of firings in the economy remains above the monthly hiring data as the unemployment rate falls. Over the past six weeks, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have averaged 867,000. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Vanishing public-sector education jobs
Over the past six months, state and local government employment averaged 720,000 fewer education positions and 390,000 fewer non-education positions than last year. That’s 1.1 million total government job losses. … READ MORE >
Revising our growth forecast into 2021
Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% growth. … READ MORE >
Tracking the coronavirus: Preparing for the deluge
Given that many states do not report on weekends, these figures likely understate the true level of infection. At the current rate of spread, and unless the public adheres to strict social distancing practices, the RSM model looks for the total number of U.S. cases to surpass 7.8 million by the second week of October. … READ MORE >
Global trade recovery: Imports at seaports rise, but exports are still in shock
Activity at North American seaports picked up over the summer, showing gains for the third straight month and indicating that the nascent recovery in the economy is underway. … READ MORE >
Permanent job losses mount as pandemic endures
The number of people who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery are misplaced. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The prime working age of discontent
While women have joined the workforce en masse in recent decades, men — and their sons who could once rely on factory jobs to support a family — have seen those jobs disappear as corporate profits increased. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Rehiring slows as permanent job losses pile up
While the U.S. economy has rebounded and a nascent recovery is underway, the pace of workers being recalled is slowing and gains in the labor market are likely to become more difficult to come by. … READ MORE >