At this point, we think that any impact on the economy can be measured through the financial channel, the confidence channel and through consumer spending, with a lag. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
U.S. personal income dropped 2.7% as income supplements faded
The U.S. August personal income and spending report partially captured the loss of roughly $60 billion in income supplements as personal income declined 2.7%. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Improvement stalls at elevated levels
There were 837,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 26, and 1.487 million if one includes the 650,000 first-time claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
September jobs report preview: Expect the recall of workers to slow
We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer confidence bounces back
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 101.8 — a jump from 86.3 in August — and surpassed analysts’ forecasts of a slight increase. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Junk bonds are the canary in the coal mine
The surge in coronavirus infections, which is causing renewed concerns about economic growth, is likely exerting an indirect effect on the bond market, increasing the yield on low-rated/high-yield corporate bonds relative to the guaranteed yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. … READ MORE >
Managed care organizations weather the coronavirus storm
It’s no mystery that major parts of the health care sector took a significant hit to the bottom line this year as hospitals postponed elective procedures to make way for coronavirus patients. But one area of the health care sector — managed care organizations — has weathered the storm quite well. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months
We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the normalization of activity. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales continue to surge
Sales of new homes have continued to reach new heights, increasing by 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted rate of a little more than 1 million for August – the first time they had eclipsed that mark since 2006. … READ MORE >