Pandemic-induced fiscal operations and monetary accommodation have pushed nominal and real policy rates into negative terrain, while aid to offset lost jobs and income has soared into the trillions around the G-7 economies. … READ MORE >
Economics
Biden outlines next round of fiscal aid
President-elect Joe Biden put forward an ambitious $1.9 trillion fiscal aid plan to address the public health crisis, the damage caused to the economy by the pandemic and the rollout of a national vaccination program. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: OPEC’s response to a drop in demand
The demand for gasoline dropped like a stone as Americans remained in their homes during the pandemic, and that drop in demand left OPEC in a quandary. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Long shadow of the pandemic hangs over labor market
Initial jobless claims surged by 965,000 for the week ending Jan. 9, which almost surely captures the 498,000 individuals in the leisure and hospitality sector who lost their jobs in December and the remarkable churn in the labor market amid lockdowns by state and local governments. … READ MORE >
Updating U.S. GDP forecast: Fiscal firepower to bolster growth
A confluence of recent events has set the stage for a significant increase in fiscal outlays this year that will boost growth in the American economy to 5.4% for the year, with risk to the upside. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation poses little risk to the U.S. economic outlook
The inflation rate ticked up to 1.4% in December and the yield on 10-year Treasuries remained above 1% for the sixth straight day on Wednesday. These should be considered small victories in the normalization of the economy after a rough nine months of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
The case for assistance to state and local governments
More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Longer-term stagnation in the labor force
Since the summer, the labor force has been shrinking by up to 3% on a year-over-year basis. Should the pandemic drag on, there is the potential of more and more of the labor force becoming discouraged, ending efforts to look for work. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. … READ MORE >