We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Economics
CHART OF THE DAY: What story is the high-yield bond market telling us?
Changes in stock and high-yield bond valuation levels have diverged since the start of September, a shift after largely tracking each other since the beginning of 2020. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Junk bonds are the canary in the coal mine
The surge in coronavirus infections, which is causing renewed concerns about economic growth, is likely exerting an indirect effect on the bond market, increasing the yield on low-rated/high-yield corporate bonds relative to the guaranteed yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months
We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the normalization of activity. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: No meaningful improvement in the pace of firings
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 19 arrived at 870,000, up from 860,000 during the previous week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
In the long run, U.S. needs a productivity miracle
The Congressional Budget Office recently published its long-term budget outlook for 2020. Beneath the outlook’s headline of rising debt-to-GDP ratios are significant policy challenges facing the U.S. economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Resurgence of pandemic in the U.K.
The sharp sell-off across financial markets on Monday is linked to fears about a global resurgence of the pandemic. Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.K. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A resurgent virus, and a grim milestone
Following a late-summer lull in the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of infections has resumed its increase in the United States and is poised to intensify in the coming weeks, RSM’s modeling shows. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain elevated at 860,000
The pace of firings in the economy remains well above anything observed during the Great Financial Crisis as 860,000 workers filed for first-time jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, a reflection of the deep scarring in the domestic labor market and economy. … READ MORE >