First-time jobless claims declined to a seasonally adjusted rate of 881,000 for the week ending Aug. 29, with non-seasonally adjusted claims falling to 833,000 as the Department of Labor introduced a new way to estimate the pace of firings in the domestic labor market. … READ MORE >
Economics
Government services: Emerging trends from industry executives in the second quarter
While the federal government is a reliable customer to serve amid a raging pandemic, federal contractors were not fully immune to COVID-19’s disruptions. Top executives in the government services space highlighted opportunities, headwinds and strategic initiatives in their second-quarter earnings calls, … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: TSA throughput highlights consumer uncertainty
As the dog days of summer near their end, traditional forms of data such as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading and Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims are starting to show strain in the U.S. economic recovery. High-frequency, real-time metrics such as TSA Traveler throughput data and OpenTable restaurant reservation … … READ MORE >
Major policy shift at the Federal Reserve: average inflation targeting
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell on Wednesday announced a significant shift in the central bank policy regime that moves away from its long held Phillips Curve-based trade-off between employment and inflation. This will provide the Federal Reserve more room for accommodation in an era of zero interest rate policy and position the central bank to support maximum sustainable employment without running the risk of higher inflation expectations and actual inflation. … READ MORE >
Small and medium size firms in crisis: A message from the real economy
The condition of small and medium-size firms implies a potential inflection point in the nascent economic rebound following the near shutdown of the economy last spring. Without further reform and support of the signature Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—which provided a vital lifeline to those firms during the worst of the pandemic—there will be an increase in bankruptcies, followed by another round of job losses, this time tilted toward the permanent elimination of jobs that support the bulk of the American middle and working classes. … READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: Consumer confidence falls to six-year low
The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in six years in August, underscoring uncertainty amid high unemployment in a U.S. economy that has faced pandemic-driven stops and starts since mid-March. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Weekly initial jobless claims higher than expected
In a sobering surprise, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 reached a higher-than-expected 1.1 million, a sign the road to economic recovery will be bumpy and volatile as the country struggles to gain footing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. … READ MORE >
RSM’s exclusive MMBI survey reveals how the Main Street Lending Program can be improved
RSM’s survey for its proprietary Middle Market Business Index for July suggested that the Main Street Lending Program could gain broader participation with targeted changes and greater clarity about the program. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Auto inventory slump may be sign of upcoming sales strength
Auto sales have accelerated over the past three months, with July U.S. new vehicle sales hitting their highest point since mid-January according to data compiled by Ward’s Automotive Group. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pipeline pressures remain muted amid inflation fears
Headline consumer and producer prices in July both exceeded consensus expectations, prompting worry about rising prices. Meanwhile, a look closer at price pressures along the production chain suggests there is less near-term inflation fear than meets the eye. Year-over-year core producer prices and final demand are both negative, reflecting diminished pricing power for firms. … READ MORE >