While the total value of retail purchases is back above pre-pandemic levels, the path to recovery remains steep. Our chart of the day shows OpenTable seated diners surged in mid-June as much of the economy rushed to reopen, but the levels are now more than 50% lower than this time last year. … READ MORE >
Economics
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
As we enter week 22 of pandemic-induced job losses, the increase in the duration of unemployment is becoming worrisome. The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below 1 million
For the first time in five months, first-time jobless claims fell below one million to 963,000 for the week ending Aug. 8, while continuing claims eased to 15.5 million, Labor Department data shows. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer prices surged in July, glossing over looming food insecurity
Despite strong July upticks in consumer prices overall, our chart of the day shows a 0.4% month-over-month decline in consumer food prices, likely the result of households preparing for a loss of income due to the congressional impasse over the extension of expanded unemployment insurance benefits. If policymakers fail to reach an agreement by Sept. 1, food insecurity will likely become an unfortunate front page topic after the Labor Day holiday. … READ MORE >
Without adjustments, Main Street Lending Program is unlikely to be mainstream
Unlike the strong demand for the Paycheck Protection Program, which saw $350 billion in aid snatched up in the 13 days following its debut, interest in the Main Street Lending Program has been more muted; less than $100 million in aid was requested in the program’s first month, according to data from the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Small business optimism fades and wage stagnation hits employees
The National Federation of Independent Business compensation index points toward wage stagnation as small firms adjust to an impaired U.S. economy. … READ MORE >
The pandemic, health care access and the economy
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has highlighted the massive inequality of access that continues to plague the richest country in the world. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Job openings increase, but so does competition for them
RSM’s Chart of the Day shows steep competition for available job openings in the U.S. labor market. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Recall of workers slows in July
The recall of workers to their jobs slowed in July as evidence of a much greater problem in the domestic labor force mounts. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Potential inflection point
Initial jobless claims for the month of July point to a potential inflection point in the American labor market. July’s data perfectly captured the flattening out of consumer demand and slowing of overall growth in the economy. … READ MORE >