Since the close of the 2019-2020 school year, Americans have turned their attention to plans for school reopening. Their decisions have significant impact for the broader economy, both traditional businesses and emerging concerns that find opportunity in the ‘new normal.’ … READ MORE >
Economics
Rational business and investment planning during an irrational pandemic
If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. … READ MORE >
Alternative data is flashing warning signs of a slowing economy
The story of the recent stall in the economy can be seen through a series of alternative and near real-time data, from restaurant reservations to public transit ridership to mobility data. … READ MORE >
Managing expectations of dollar strength during and after the pandemic
The greenback has increased 3.89% this year using the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index as our benchmark. Because of growing risks around the domestic management of the pandemic and increasing uncertainty around U.S. fiscal policy, we think that strength is at risk. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Coming attractions at the Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate decisions on July 29 will likely be remembered not for what is stated inside the policy communique. Rather, it will be long noted by what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says at his news conference afterward regarding policy change. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, by state: Texas passes 3 million
Texas became the fifth state to have processed 3 million initial filings for unemployment benefits since the onset of the novel coronavirus and the shutdown of local economies on March 7. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Slowing economy pushes claims higher
A series of alternative and near real-time data show that the economy began to slow on or around June 24. First-time jobless claims, which increased by 1.416 million for the week ending July 18, affirm the evolution of that data and point to risks around a slower pace of workers being recalled to their pre-pandemic jobs. … READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. … READ MORE >
What PPP loan data reveals about business and professional services and the economic recovery
The trajectory of the U.S. real economy hinges on the health of business and professional services firms and their ability to continue to employ many Americans. … READ MORE >
No vaccine, no recovery: The long road back
It is becoming quite clear that absent an accessible and widely distributed vaccine, that there will be no complete economic recovery. What originally was thought to be a 15 week problem has quickly evolved into something that looks more like a 15-month challenge. The premature reopening of the U.S. economy has resulted in an intensification of the pandemic, which is now causing growth in the economy to slow. The spread of the disease has resulted in a rollback of normal social and economic activity that poses significant risk to already subdued utilization of the full capacity to produce around the economy. Thus, any discussion of a full reopening and recovery of the domestic economy must be discussed within the context of a viable timetable that includes a vaccine. … READ MORE >