Apprehension expressed by economic and financial pundits about potential runaway inflation and higher interest rates in the wake of the U.S. Treasury’s recent issuance of bonds is high. Our assessment of both the economic and policy paths strongly implies hat these worries will not become actualized in the near term. … READ MORE >
Economics
A spring unlike any other: Ground rules for reopening
Thirty states have coronavirus reproduction rates of greater than one (R>1), meaning that each infected person is expected to spread the virus to more than one other person. This implies that the timing of reopening the economy may have been premature and the rules framing that reopening may have involved … … READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas decodes the Fed’s new Main Street Lending Program
The Federal Reserve launched a new program on Monday to provide bridge financing to midsize firms that have been hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state … … READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, and continuing claims advanced by 20.5 million. This is the thirteenth straight week in which claims have increased by more than one million. … READ MORE >
Latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows a spike in optimism
Manufacturing firms in New York state were more optimistic in June that business conditions would be better in six months, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The index for future business conditions rose between May and June by 27.4 points … … READ MORE >
A not-so-great anniversary of Smoot-Hawley
This month marks the inauspicious 90th anniversary of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, perhaps the most ill-advised bill on the economy ever enacted. … READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of coronavirus: The prospect, and the cost, of a second wave
There are now more new cases of COVID-19 infections in the South and Southwest and other less densely populated areas of the country than in the previously hard-hit metropolitan centers of the East Coast, Chicago and Los Angeles. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: Even with overall drop, nine states have big increases
Despite the overall drop in initial jobless claims in the latest week to 1.5 million, there were still nine states that reported significant increases in first-time applications for unemployment benefits. … READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: More questions than answers
First-time jobless claims increased by 1.542 million for the week ending June 6, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Over the past 12 weeks, 44.1 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, which is roughly equal to 27.9% of the 158 million pre-pandemic labor force. … READ MORE >