Following the U.K.’s departure from the European Union a month ago, markets are bracing for a global health crisis and the accompanying supply shock. The RSM Brexit Stress Index — which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s departure from Europe’s common market – has shot up in the past two weeks from zero to 1.15 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. … READ MORE >
Economics
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate in response to health crisis
Canada’s central bank moved aggressively to drop its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 1.25%, following action taken by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Last estimate before coronavirus impact
We expect an increase of 178,000 in total employment when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first estimate of nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. … READ MORE >
Initial unemployment claims, coronavirus and recession probabilities
Over the next few weeks, policymakers will receive high frequency data that will capture supply and demand shocks that are going to cascade throughout the economy. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, demand destruction will set in
We are now beginning to observe some demand destruction around the public health crisis, and we expect this will be the major narrative once data begins to arrive in coming weeks. … READ MORE >
The Fed cut its policy rate by a half percentage point. Expect more to come.
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday reduced its policy rate to a range between 1.0% and 1.25% as the central bank implemented a preemptive cut to bolster financial conditions as the coronavirus continues to spread. … READ MORE >
Anatomy of a meltdown: Financial markets finally take notice of supply shocks
Financial market across the international economy are extracting a powerful toll on portfolio valuations amidst a volatile landscape. … READ MORE >
ISM manufacturing index declines in February
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index — a key gauge of U.S. factory activity — dropped to 50.1 in February, from 50.9 a month earlier, and below the consensus of 50.5. … READ MORE >
Revising growth expectations down because of shocks from coronavirus
We are revising down our 2020 growth forecast because of supply, demand, and financial shocks rippling through the global and U.S. economies amid the spread of coronavirus. While we do not foresee a recession at this time because of expected fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, we believe economic growth will … … READ MORE >
Powell’s statement is a necessary first step in addressing the coronavirus fallout
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Lowell made a well-directed and much-needed statement on Friday in an attempt to begin taking back control of the narrative of the Fed’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. … READ MORE >