The American economy is simultaneously absorbing three distinct shocks, each of which will act as a large drag on economic growth during the current and second quarters of the year. The impact of the coronavirus will cause a disruption to American society that will last well beyond the current crisis and will affect growth over the next three to four years.
Economics
The shock to Canada’s system – unsettling financial conditions and unprecedented monetary response
Stress in Canada’s financial system this week amid the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has risen to levels unseen since the days prior to the September 2008 meltdown of the global financial system. … READ MORE >
Fed and Treasury create Commercial Paper Funding Facility to ease credit stress
The U.S. Treasury on Tuesday granted the Federal Reserve 13(3) authority under Dodd-Frank that permits the central bank to take steps under exigent and unusual circumstances to stabilize financial markets and the economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales declined in February amid coronavirus uncertainty
Consumers pulled back across the board on spending in February as the onset of the coronavirus began to shape household expectations about the economy and society. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus impact on Canadian economy calls for more government action
There is no question COVID-19 will significantly wound the Canadian economy. The big question governments and policymakers have to grapple with is whether the downturn will be short term or longer term in nature. Indeed, the answer to this question will help to guide the appropriate fiscal policy response. … READ MORE >
The case for social distancing: Reducing economic activity to reduce the spread of coronavirus
A simple analysis shows that social distancing should be taken as quickly as possible by individuals to preserve their health and by corporations to avoid liability issues. … READ MORE >
U.S. and global financial conditions imply economies at risk
Global financial conditions continue to flash red as global central banks acted forcefully to address the economic and financial effects of the COVID-19 virus. The Federal Reserve put a punctuation mark on monetary policy, dropping the fed funds rate back to the zero lower bound (ZLB) boosting asset purchases, opening dollar swap lines and reducing the rate it charges at its discount window. … READ MORE >
Fed intervenes in credit markets, but will it be enough?
The Federal Reserve along with its major central banking partners moved on Sunday to restore functioning credit markets in an attempt to put a floor under the global economy and calm financial markets. … READ MORE >
Money market primer: How to measure stress in the financial system
We provide a series of accessible metrics that can be used to estimate stress across money markets and help determine when the financial crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak is intensifying or easing. … READ MORE >
Real economy faces severe test as coronavirus challenges to business activity mount
Volatility across asset markets and the end of the 11-year bull market run in equity prices strongly implies that the current business cycle will soon come to an end, if it hasn’t already done so. … READ MORE >