The tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy statement would imply that it stands ready to cut rates to bolster the domestic economy should growth slow. … READ MORE >
Economics
USMCA is a solid opportunity for the middle market
The pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, includes a chapter dedicated to small and medium enterprises – a first for a multilateral trade agreement – and also adopts a wide array of provisions from the abrogated Trans Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Both of these provisions are major wins. … READ MORE >
The Bank of Canada’s dilemma — stability versus rate cut
While maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75% would appear to be prudent at the very least, we would argue that the Bank of Canada should strongly consider cutting rates in the near term. … READ MORE >
Retail sales close out year on a positive note
The health of the American consumer remains strong as outlays on retail sales closed out the year on a positive note with plenty of room for upward revisions. U.S. December advance retail sales increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and was up 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Women outnumber men in the workforce, and the middle market must adapt
The December U.S. Employment Report provided a sign that the U.S. labor market, economy and the basic relationship between work and the individual has now reached tipping point. Women now outnumber men in the workforce by 50.04% to 49.96%. … READ MORE >
Canada added 35,200 jobs in December, exceeding estimates
The Canadian economy added 35,200 jobs in December, significantly greater than the 25,000 expected by economists. This partially offsets the 71,000 job losses in November’s Statistics Canada labor market survey. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to reach 5.6%, near the historic low of 5.5% last recorded in October of last year. … READ MORE >
U.S. added 145,000 jobs in December as women now outnumber men in the workforce
Hiring in the economy closed out the year with a gain of 145,000 jobs in December, making for a overall increase of 2.1 million in 2019, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That figure represents a modest decline compared to a gain of 2.7 million in 2018 and is down from the cyclical high of a little more than 3 million jobs added in 2014. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect a cooler December
We expect a net gain of 145,000 in December hiring with downside risk linked to late-year seasonal adjustments and a slower pace of hiring. This slower pace is implied by the hiring data within the ISM Service Sector report and an accelerating pace of contraction within the ISM Manufacturing survey. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index remains subdued
Stress in the British financial markets has remained subdued over the four weeks since the general election. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, started the new year at an insignificant 0.03 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress, just slightly higher than last week’s 0.02 standard deviations below normal levels of stress. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing report puts a dent in prospect of global re-acceleration
A narrative began to emerge among investors and policymakers in the last quarter of 2019 that a global economic re-acceleration was at hand, thanks to an expected rebound in manufacturing. But the December ISM Manufacturing report, released on Friday, coupled with the fallout from rising tensions in the Middle East, have put a significant dent in that thesis. The result will most likely be a reduced appetite for risk and lower global asset prices in the coming days. … READ MORE >