Initial benefit claims for unemployment insurance remained subdued in the past week, signaling a still-healthy labor market despite the outbreak of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Economics
Dealing with disruptions: Policy options for addressing exogenous shocks
The outbreak of the coronavirus and other economic threats add up to a series of supply, demand and financial shocks that now threaten normal life and commercial activity throughout the global community. … READ MORE >
US February jobs report–the last waltz before more sobering data
Policymakers and investors should take one last good look at the February U.S. employment data because it effectively represents the end of the multi-year string of strong monthly jobs reports. From here on in, the focus will shift to weekly first-time initial jobless claims and filings for unemployment insurance. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index shoots up, reflecting coronavirus supply shock concern
Following the U.K.’s departure from the European Union a month ago, markets are bracing for a global health crisis and the accompanying supply shock. The RSM Brexit Stress Index — which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s departure from Europe’s common market – has shot up in the past two weeks from zero to 1.15 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate in response to health crisis
Canada’s central bank moved aggressively to drop its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 1.25%, following action taken by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Last estimate before coronavirus impact
We expect an increase of 178,000 in total employment when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first estimate of nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. … READ MORE >
Initial unemployment claims, coronavirus and recession probabilities
Over the next few weeks, policymakers will receive high frequency data that will capture supply and demand shocks that are going to cascade throughout the economy. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, demand destruction will set in
We are now beginning to observe some demand destruction around the public health crisis, and we expect this will be the major narrative once data begins to arrive in coming weeks. … READ MORE >
The Fed cut its policy rate by a half percentage point. Expect more to come.
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday reduced its policy rate to a range between 1.0% and 1.25% as the central bank implemented a preemptive cut to bolster financial conditions as the coronavirus continues to spread. … READ MORE >
Anatomy of a meltdown: Financial markets finally take notice of supply shocks
Financial market across the international economy are extracting a powerful toll on portfolio valuations amidst a volatile landscape. … READ MORE >