The program, which was scheduled to stop accepting new applications on Tuesday even though it had more than $134 billion left to distribute as of June 27, could now be extended through Aug. 8, after the Senate and the House approved the measure. … READ MORE >
Economics
The worst may be over for the manufacturing sector, but industry remains cautious
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index is reporting a remarkable rebound of sentiment in the U.S. manufacturing industry. But while the worst might be behind us, the index remains slightly negative at nearly 0.3 standard deviations below normal conditions, which suggests that a national recovery has yet to materialize. Moreover, damage … … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Will June data already be out of date by the time it’s published?
We expect an increase of 3.1 million in total employment, led by workers who have been called back to their jobs, and a decrease to 12.2% in the unemployment rate when the jobs data for June is released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Houston we have a problem: A rising curve of coronavirus infections
Notions of an easing pandemic ought to be gently dismissed as the pace of newly reported coronavirus cases appears ready to breach the April peak amid the accelerating spread of the virus around the country. … READ MORE >
May U.S. personal income and spending: Impaired households in view
Income dynamics in May tend to suggest that policymakers need to act sooner rather than later to support struggling American workers to avoid a quickly approaching fiscal cliff on July 31. … READ MORE >
Nine states report significant increases in jobless claims
Nine states reported significant increases in first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 20 — a sobering reminder of the ongoing economic toll of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Why the wait for further aid?
For the week ending June 20, 1.48 million people filed for first-time jobless claims, while 19.52 million filed continuing claims, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM monthly GDP index: Negative real growth continues into the second quarter
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9. … READ MORE >
Will yields rise due to increased issuance of Treasury bonds? Let’s get the elephant out of the room!
Apprehension expressed by economic and financial pundits about potential runaway inflation and higher interest rates in the wake of the U.S. Treasury’s recent issuance of bonds is high. Our assessment of both the economic and policy paths strongly implies hat these worries will not become actualized in the near term. … READ MORE >
A spring unlike any other: Ground rules for reopening
Thirty states have coronavirus reproduction rates of greater than one (R>1), meaning that each infected person is expected to spread the virus to more than one other person. This implies that the timing of reopening the economy may have been premature and the rules framing that reopening may have involved … … READ MORE >