As the human and economic toll of the coronavirus continues to mount, the hospitality industry is bracing for the worst. On Jan. 30, the World Health Organization cautioned against non-essential travel to China after declaring the outbreak a public health emergency. Major airlines quickly responded, as British Airways, United, Delta … … READ MORE >
Economics
Economics of a global health crisis
Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global risks. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve brings dovish tint to statement as consumption downgraded
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee attempted to thread the needle in its January meeting by maintaining its existing policy rate while acknowledging moderating real consumption. … READ MORE >
Expect fourth quarter GDP to come in at 1.7%
The U.S. economy most likely expanded near a 1.7% output in the fourth quarter of 2019, near its long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% and just below the 2.1% consensus forecast. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve meeting suddenly becomes interesting as coronavirus spreads
What was shaping up as one of the most boring policy rate decisions in some time has suddenly gained a measure of uncertainty because of investor concern about the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Holding interest rates steady, Bank of Canada keeps the door open for a cut
The tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy statement would imply that it stands ready to cut rates to bolster the domestic economy should growth slow. … READ MORE >
USMCA is a solid opportunity for the middle market
The pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, includes a chapter dedicated to small and medium enterprises – a first for a multilateral trade agreement – and also adopts a wide array of provisions from the abrogated Trans Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Both of these provisions are major wins. … READ MORE >
The Bank of Canada’s dilemma — stability versus rate cut
While maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75% would appear to be prudent at the very least, we would argue that the Bank of Canada should strongly consider cutting rates in the near term. … READ MORE >
Retail sales close out year on a positive note
The health of the American consumer remains strong as outlays on retail sales closed out the year on a positive note with plenty of room for upward revisions. U.S. December advance retail sales increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and was up 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >