Boeing’s announcement this week that it would halt production of its troubled 737 Max in January 2020 will have an impact that extends far beyond its own business, and will most likely shave 0.5% off first-quarter GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >
Economics
November retail sales not full of holiday cheer
The traditional holiday sales did not get off a robust start in November, which was most likely because of a late Thanksgiving holiday that pushed some spending into December. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index plunges as Johnson gains clear victory
Stress in the British financial markets plummeted as voters handed the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Johnson a clear victory on Thursday, signaling years of gridlock over Brexit … READ MORE >
Fed leaves rates unchanged and points to shift on inflation target
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday said it had retained its accommodative policy stance by keeping the federal funds rate in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. … READ MORE >
Expect the Fed to stick to the script
We expect the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate in a range between 1.50% and 1.75% at the December FOMC meeting. The major interest of investors and policymakers will naturally be the movement in the dot plot, which we expect to move into alignment with the current policy rate, with 2020 to the midpoint of the current target range near 1.62%. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
Private equity looks for recession-proof deals
These are flush times for American private equity funds. Through November, they have raised more capital than any other fiscal year. But a good portion of that cash has not been put to use – yet. One reason is that many takeover targets have simply become too expensive, a dynamic … … READ MORE >
Expect a solid jobs report on Friday, despite manufacturing’s weakness
The November nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday, and despite early reports of softness in manufacturing, we still expect a net increase in total employment of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6%, thanks to a healthier service sector. … READ MORE >
As global economy slows, populism looms as long-term threat
The global economy has been buffeted recently by trade tensions between United States and China and slowing growth. But a greater risk looms around the world in the form of rising populism that threatens to unravel the postwar economic order, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. … READ MORE >