American factory activity declined for the fourth straight month in November as sluggish global growth and continued uncertainty over trade issues took their toll, according a key gauge released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.
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Economics
RSM Brexit Stress Index continues to ease
Stress in the British financial markets has been easing in the three weeks since the election announcement, continuing a holding pattern of sorts until there is more clarity on the political and economic fronts. … READ MORE >
Early signals show continued decline for the leading indicator
Analysts are forecasting that Thursday’s release of the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator of U.S. growth will show a 0.2% decline for October, the third month in a row of negative growth. … READ MORE >
Looking to 2020: Consumer is king amid slowing growth
The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. industrial production falls a sharp 0.8% in October
While auto production will undoubtedly rebound in November, the problems at Boeing surrounding the 737 Max and the uncertainty tax imposed on firms caused by the trade conflict with China have knocked the air out of domestic industrial production. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on speculation of trade deal
Stress in the British financial markets eased during the week, as domestic political events took a back seat to global market pressure. The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week lower, at 0.67 standard deviations above normal levels of implied risk, down 0.14 from last week’s close at 0.81 standard deviations. … READ MORE >
The Fed walked a tightrope in cutting rates, and succeeded
The Fed’s careful balancing act of making insurance cuts to guard against global economic headwinds and normalize the yield curve without committing to extended cuts seems to have now gained acceptance with the markets. The entire yield curve has shifted lower since the July meeting because of the three rate cuts made this year. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index ends tumultuous week slightly higher
The financial markets priced in a bit more volatility and risk to the enduring Brexit saga. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index continues to contract
The October ISM Manufacturing Index continued to contract in October, though it improved to 48.3 from September’s reading of 47.9, implying a modestly slower pace of contraction in domestic manufacturing sentiment. … READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The October report continues to imply a period of slower hiring ahead, excluding temporary census workers compared to one year ago which is in line with the overall slower pace of economic activity. The bottom line of the October U.S. employment report is that there is sufficient job creation and wage gains to support growth near the long-term trend of 1.8 % and keep the U.S. some distance from a total economic downturn. … READ MORE >