A sagging global economy dragged down by a trade war and a domestic manufacturing sector on the edge of contraction are sufficient risks to warrant a 25-basis-point-reduction in the federal funds rate to 2% to 2.25% percent when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Economics
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Increased volatility and higher stress as pro-Brexit PM takes Britain’s helm
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week on increased currency market volatility and sobering economic news from the UK’s trading partners as Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit Conservative Party candidate, was elected prime minister. … READ MORE >
US growth decelerates amid trade uncertainty, slowing global economy
The sharp deceleration in second quarter gross domestic product growth exaggerates the slowdown in overall economic activity, but make no mistake about it: the brief period of near 3% economic growth fueled by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has now faded. … READ MORE >
Boeing’s potential halt to 737 Max production would have wide economic impact
Boeing on Wednesday reported its largest-ever quarterly loss of $3.4 billion due to the continued troubles with its 737 Max plane.The company continues to work with regulators, but if not able to get approval in the near term, Boeing said it would consider reducing or shutting down production of the 737 Max entirely. … READ MORE >
Second edition of The Real Economy, Canada focuses on digital transformation, other positives
RSM Canada on Wednesday released the second issue of The Real Economy, Canada. The publication explores the impact of positive economic trends such as Canada’s burgeoning digital economy against the backdrop of a global slowdown in growth, North American trade disruptions and other stresses to the economy. … READ MORE >
Central banks brace for economic slowdown as manufacturing reflects contraction
As global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, prepare to proactively stave off an economic slowdown, we turn our attention to the primary rationale behind the push to alter monetary policy–the global economic downturn in manufacturing and its ripple effect on middle market suppliers. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Global growth and the bond market
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week, as the currency, equity and bond markets reacted to the political posturing around a hard exit from Europe’s common market and the impact of what looks to be a slowdown in global growth. … READ MORE >
Retail sales boom in June, industrial production flat
Today’s data comes close to wrapping up data collection for the second quarter of 2019, and imply that the consumer sector has robustly rebounded from a weak first three months of the year, while overall industrial production remains tepid at best. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Adding to the list of unintended consequences
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, as the market processed conflicting central banking trends: global equities pushed higher on an expected U.S. rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a quick turnaround in the U.K. bond market as the slim probability of a base rate cut by the Bank of England grew even smaller. … READ MORE >
Jobs rebound likely to fade in second half of year
The U.S. economy generated 224,000 jobs in June driven by solid increases in education and health, business services, good producing and construction jobs. … READ MORE >