The U.S. economy is signaling that the decade-long business cycle upswing following the global financial crisis and the Great Recession is nearing – or might have already reached – its apogee. This should be recognized as neither good news, nor a surprising development, given the proliferation of risks to the outlook. It’s safe to say that inertia is almost always a factor when forecasting economic cycles and when making investment decisions based on those expectations. … READ MORE >
Economics
Wage growth and the end of business cycles
“It’s likely that wage growth has peaked in the current business cycle,” writes RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, “which strongly suggests that the U.S. economy has entered the latter stages of the economic expansion.” … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed positions for rate cut later this year
The Federal Reserve is on the precipice of a major shift in policy as the economy, hiring and wages slow amid a backdrop of muted inflation. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–Assessing the political damage
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed lower for the second week in a row, following the resignation of Prime Minster Theresa May last month and an uncertain political future for the U.K. The composite index—which measures economic uncertainty surrounding Britain’s departure from the European Union—moderated to 0.24 on Friday from 0.40 at the end of last week … READ MORE >
A proactive approach to digital disruption
As the pace of disruption continues to accelerate, technology is playing an outsize role in growth—and corporate survival. Regardless of sector, if you wait until disruption occurs to react, you risk being left in the dust as your competitive advantage quickly erodes. … READ MORE >
Will May’s slow jobs growth spell a Fed interest rate cut? Joe Brusuelas offers insight in a WSJ podcast
The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May. Does that lend credence to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate in the near term? RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas weighs in on this podcast with the Wall Street Journal’s Charlie Turner on Friday, June 7. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid May’s departure
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed at 0.42 on Friday, moderating from 0.60 at the end of last week, as Prime Minister Theresa May officially exits her post at Tory leader. … READ MORE >
Jobs report clunker puts June rate cut on the table
An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. … READ MORE >
The Real Economy, June issue, is out now
What are the real costs of trade disputes to the overall economy, sectors such as agriculture and to everyday consumers? RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas lays out the comprehensive impact in the June issue of The Real Economy. “Recent scholarly research has validated concerns about the comprehensive absorption of … … READ MORE >
Recession watch: What the bond market is saying about prospects for growth
The bond market is clearly signaling that absent a cessation of trade hostilities or a shift in monetary policy, we are now late in the business cycle. … READ MORE >