The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Here’s a look at some of the actions we could take to reverse these trends. … READ MORE >
Economics
Counting the costs of trade
Recent scholarly research has validated concerns about comprehensive absorption of costs associated with number of trade spats in which the United States is now engaged. That research implies that American firms and households are paying a $3 billion per month increase in costs caused by trade policy, in addition to absorbing roughly $1.4 billion in welfare losses associated with the policy shift on trade. … READ MORE >
Financial crisis monitor: agriculture sector at risk
Should the current trade policy pathway not be changed, the farm sector is going to experience the greatest downturn since the late 1980s, driven by widespread bankruptcies and consolidation. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas explores. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows increase in financial market stress
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.34, up from last week’s close at 0.02. Although remaining within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, financial market stress is nevertheless inching higher again. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index finishes week slightly up, signals normality
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.02, slightly higher than last week’s value of -0.01, signaling a period of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility. … READ MORE >
Time to get real on GDP and gasoline prices–read The Real Economy
In this issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas reviews leading indicators of economic activity as the United States heads into the late innings of this current business cycle. … READ MORE >
US employment report–April springs ahead
A dynamic U.S. labor market did not disappoint in April as the private sector created 236,000 new jobs and government added 27,000 for a net gain of 263,000 on the month. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the lowest since December 1969. Upward revisions to the previous two months resulted in a total change in employment of 279,000, well above the 169,000 three-month average. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise to 230,000
First-time jobless claims increased to 230,000 for the week ending April 26, well above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average of 217,100. … READ MORE >
Fed policy bumps up against muted inflation expectations: Data point to ‘lower for longer’ inflation
The Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting featured an in-depth discussion around risks to the economic outlook from falling inflation and current inflation expectations. The central bank’s current policy framework has set a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, core inflation has eased to 1.6 percent, well below the Fed’s target, while … … READ MORE >
ISM manufacturing survey points toward further moderation
Those looking for stabilization in the downward trajectory of U.S. manufacturing sentiment will have to wait until mid-year.The April 2019 Institute for Supply Management Report on Business – an important gauge of U.S. factories – arrived below expectations with the top line index slowing to 52.8 from 55.3, the weakest level since late 2016. … READ MORE >