Downward revisions to the May and June estimate of total employment as well as a decline in total and aggregate hours worked cast a pall over a total change in July employment of 123,000 (164,000 top line less net downward revision of 41,000) and the unemployment rate that held steady … … READ MORE >
Economics
US manufacturing–slipping away
The U.S. manufacturing sector slipped closer to contractionary terrain in July, which in our estimation reaffirms the decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting on Wednesday. The top line sentiment index in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey declined to 51.2 from 51.7 a month earlier, while production and new orders rose to 50.8. Any reading below 50 in the top line is consistent with a recession in the manufacturing sector. … READ MORE >
US employment preview: hiring deceleration amid steady unemployment rate
The U.S. economy likely generated roughly 150,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The July employment report—due to be released by the government Friday—is traditionally impacted by seasonal adjustments that will likely include sharp slowing in education and government hiring along with a notable pick up in leisure and hospitality. In addition, we expect another soft increase of 0.2% in average hourly earnings, which would keep the year-ago metric at 3.1%. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts interest rates with another cut likely in September
Reductions or increases in U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate are often like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil; they may get the job done but the fallout is always widespread and sure to cause a commotion. So it is with today’s rate cut as the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee sought to provide a cushion to a rapidly deteriorating global economic environment that will likely spill over into the U.S. economy and muted inflation. … READ MORE >
New RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index points to manufacturing slowdown, recession risk
A new manufacturing index from RSM has been declining on trend for 14 months since peaking in June 2018, and has been negative since December of last year. The performance of the new measure, the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, suggests the potential for negative growth in manufacturing sales in the months ahead. … READ MORE >
FOMC Preview: Insurance against a greater pace of economic deceleration
A sagging global economy dragged down by a trade war and a domestic manufacturing sector on the edge of contraction are sufficient risks to warrant a 25-basis-point-reduction in the federal funds rate to 2% to 2.25% percent when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Increased volatility and higher stress as pro-Brexit PM takes Britain’s helm
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week on increased currency market volatility and sobering economic news from the UK’s trading partners as Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit Conservative Party candidate, was elected prime minister. … READ MORE >
US growth decelerates amid trade uncertainty, slowing global economy
The sharp deceleration in second quarter gross domestic product growth exaggerates the slowdown in overall economic activity, but make no mistake about it: the brief period of near 3% economic growth fueled by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has now faded. … READ MORE >
Boeing’s potential halt to 737 Max production would have wide economic impact
Boeing on Wednesday reported its largest-ever quarterly loss of $3.4 billion due to the continued troubles with its 737 Max plane.The company continues to work with regulators, but if not able to get approval in the near term, Boeing said it would consider reducing or shutting down production of the 737 Max entirely. … READ MORE >
Second edition of The Real Economy, Canada focuses on digital transformation, other positives
RSM Canada on Wednesday released the second issue of The Real Economy, Canada. The publication explores the impact of positive economic trends such as Canada’s burgeoning digital economy against the backdrop of a global slowdown in growth, North American trade disruptions and other stresses to the economy. … READ MORE >