In our estimation, sending the public back to work at this time would be premature, put far more individuals at risk and run the risk of another series of economic shutdowns should there be a second or third wave this fall and next winter. … READ MORE >
Economics
Expect initial jobless claims to surge this week as coronavirus spreads
When the new figures for initial jobless claims are announced this week, they will jump above the cyclical high of 665,000 set during the recovery from the Great Recession and the all-time high of 695,000 set in October 1982. … READ MORE >
As businesses contend with coronavirus, liquidity becomes a top concern
Financial institutions should assess all options of their short- and moderate-term liquidity. By understanding the liquidity needs of customers, financial institutions will be able to plan for the increased borrowing demand while mitigating the impact on their own financial statements. … READ MORE >
Fed takes robust action to backstop the economy and financial markets
The Federal Reserve moved aggressively on Monday to mitigate what is going to be a severe disruption in the American economy by committing to an open-ended quantitative easing program and the construction of the Main Street Business Lending Program to support small and medium-sized firms. … READ MORE >
Saving small and medium-size business: temporary lending facility needed now
If the fiscal and monetary authority do not act with temporary lending relief for small and midsize companies, soon a disaster will encompass Main Street businesses through no fault of their own—this disaster is entirely preventable. … READ MORE >
Just how deep is the supply shock? West Coast ports tell the story.
West Coast port activity implies that the supply shock affecting the domestic economy is broad and deep. This strongly suggests a sharp decline in consumption and industrial activity as firms struggle to acquire supplies to make final goods and consumers pull back because of a lack of finished goods on the shelves. … READ MORE >
Jump in initial jobless claims signals an impending recession
The data is likely the first sign of the catastrophic disruption to normal life and an impending economic recession caused by the spread of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Preview: Jobless claims to soar in near-term
Over the next few weeks, U.S. data flow will capture the impact of the supply, demand and financial shocks that are cascading throughout the economy. Policymakers should anticipate a wave of layoffs reflecting the stunning downturn in the economy. … READ MORE >
Revising growth lower: A reset is coming for the U.S. economy
The American economy is simultaneously absorbing three distinct shocks, each of which will act as a large drag on economic growth during the current and second quarters of the year. The impact of the coronavirus will cause a disruption to American society that will last well beyond the current crisis and will affect growth over the next three to four years.
The shock to Canada’s system – unsettling financial conditions and unprecedented monetary response
Stress in Canada’s financial system this week amid the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has risen to levels unseen since the days prior to the September 2008 meltdown of the global financial system. … READ MORE >