A sustained hard closure of the U.S. border with Mexico would trigger a recession in both the United States and Mexico within six months. The automotive sector, in particular, is vulnerable. … READ MORE >
Economics
March jobs report: Payrolls rise, but wage growth cools
The U.S. March employment report should allay fears of a 2019 recession as the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent and the economy generated 196,000 new jobs on top of an upward revision of 13,000 to the February estimate, bringing the total change in employment to 209,000. … READ MORE >
Brexit and the middle market: What comes next?
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas gives an update on the outlook for middle market companies following the UK’s planned departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
US employment report preview: modest rebound as risks to outlook rise
We expect this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to show 155,000 jobs were added in March with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent. Slowing economic activity during the first quarter places downside risk on our top-line employment growth forecast. … READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index awaits parliament’s next move as EU mulls ‘Brextra Time’
The RSM Brexit Stress index remained essentially unchanged falling from .74 standard deviations above neutral to .72 for the week ending March 29. The primary catalysts for the relatively unchanged score were narrowing corporate bond spreads, lower volatility of British Sterling in foreign exchange markets and improvement in the FTSE … … READ MORE >
RSM US Middle Market Business Index tumbles in Q1–Joe Brusuelas decodes the drop
Joe Brusuelas explains what’s behind the drop in the first quarter RSM US Middle Market Business Index and how middle market businesses can prepare for an uncertain economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Yield curve inverts, though recession not yet in sight
Last week the policy-sensitive U.S. 10-year—three-month Treasury spread inverted, meaning yields on the short-term three-month Treasury bill were higher than yields on the 10-year Treasury note (Figure 1). The brief inversion implied that investors were willing to pay more for three-month short-term Treasury bills against the risk of holding depreciating … … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index rises on uncertain policy path of May government
The RSM Brexit Stress Index increased to 0.71 standard deviations above neutral from 0.55 one week ago, amid continued uncertainty regarding timing of Britain’s departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
The March edition of The Real Economy is out now
In the March issue of The Real Economy, we assess the impact of Brexit on the UK economy with our new RSM Brexit Stress Index. In addition, we provide a first glimpse of new data from the upcoming RSM US Middle Market Business Index survey on cybersecurity, and our monthly outlook for real GDP. … READ MORE >