What are the real costs of trade disputes to the overall economy, sectors such as agriculture and to everyday consumers? RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas lays out the comprehensive impact in the June issue of The Real Economy. “Recent scholarly research has validated concerns about the comprehensive absorption of … … READ MORE >
Economics
Recession watch: What the bond market is saying about prospects for growth
The bond market is clearly signaling that absent a cessation of trade hostilities or a shift in monetary policy, we are now late in the business cycle. … READ MORE >
Mexico tariff poised to hurt California tech economy
A proposed new tariff on Mexican imports could have a devastating impact on California’s technology sector; the state imports a disproportionate amount of goods from the United States’ southern trading partner and conversely exports a large amount of products over the border. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy and the path of interest rates: Fed funds rate to decline by 50 basis points in 2019
Based on recent economic data and policy risk around deteriorating global trade conditions, we now expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the policy rate to a range of 1.75 to 2 percent from 2.25 to 2.5 percent by the end of 2019. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: strong top line, focus on manufacturing employment
The focus of the May employment report will likely provide a contrast between underlying strength in the top line, which we expect to show a gain of 175,000 jobs in the month and the slowing of hiring in the manufacturing sector, which has produced a net gain of only 12,000 jobs over the past three months. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index rises amid political uncertainty
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, closing at 0.60 from 0.53 last Friday, as the markets digest the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, effective June 7. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index closes week up, as May resigns PM post
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again in the week, as Prime Minister Theresa May of the Conservative Party resigned her post following multiple failed attempts to solidify a plan for Britain’s departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
Can consumers carry the economy amid weak business investment?
Durable goods orders in April showed broad weakness as expected, down 2.1 percent. However, in addition to April results, March durable goods numbers were also revised downward, compounding the impact and creating a weaker trend. Can consumer spending pick up the slack? … READ MORE >
IMF cuts global growth outlook to lowest since 2009
The International Monetary Fund recently revised downward its forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent, the lowest level since 2009. Business executives, advisors, and other leaders must understand the fundamental changes that informed the revision and how those changes may impact their organizations. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–a waiting game
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.36, virtually unchanged from last week’s close. Although the index remains within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, there were nevertheless signs of increased stress in the majority of markets. … READ MORE >