The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday signaled that it in all likelihood has ended its policy normalization campaign. The FOMC is attempting to engineer a soft landing for an economy that rapidly decelerated during the first quarter of the year amid global economic headwinds, volatility across asset space and policy risks associated with U.S. trade policy. … READ MORE >
Economics
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Brexit’s impact on trade, wealth, business cycle and corporate profit
On Wednesday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May asked the European Union for an extension of Britain’s deadline to exit the trading bloc to June 30, three months beyond the original deadline, media reported. The Real Economy Blog is closely watching Brexit developments and their impact on the middle market. Check out RSM’s Brexit Stress Index, which measures Brexit’s impact on the British economy. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty tax: the catalyst for underperformance in Anglo-American economies
An “uncertainty tax” linked to the economic realities of Brexit developments in the U.K. and trade tensions in the United States is damping overall economic activity in both economies. These issues, which are strongly linked to the breakout of economic populism around the world, are creating conditions for slower growth and recession if the current protectionist actions are sustained. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Prudent pause and revising economic outlook downward
The dovish turn at the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting was predicated on an interesting juxtaposition: the committee telegraphed a prudent pause in its policy normalization campaign, while not substantially revising down its forward-looking economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Miles to go before I sleep: Brexit moves toward extend and pretend
The U.K. Parliament this week has moved toward our base case for the Brexit process, approaching a short-term extension that will result in a modified deal for Britain to exit the European Union some time before June 30. But getting there won’t be easy. … READ MORE >
Brexit’s impact on currency movement: RSM’s chief economist explores this topic
RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas discusses the impact of Brexit on the British pound with Simon Hart, RSM UK lead Brexit partner. … READ MORE >
A Brexit deadline is fast approaching-RSM’s chief economist breaks it down for U.S. companies
The March 29 deadline for Britain’s exit from the European Union, known as Brexit, is fast approaching. Meanwhile, the future of business relationships with the U.K. hangs in the balance. … READ MORE >
Retail sales: Fatigued consumer bounces back but will there be follow through?
January retail sales data indicated a modest rebound in spending after a weaker-than-expected close to 2018. The 0.2 percent month-over-month increase in retail sales and the 0.9 percent increase in the retail sales control group figure that feeds into estimates of gross domestic product both affirm that the U.S. did not fall into recession to kick off the year. … READ MORE >
February employment overview: uncertainty tax to damp hiring going forward
The U.S. economy has slowed over the past three months and hiring eased along with it. The economy generated only 20,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent due to a combination of special one-time factors, a government shutdown and the likely pulling back of hiring by companies facing heightened uncertainty about the direction of the domestic and global economies amid sustained international trade tensions. … READ MORE >
‘Extend and pretend’–a Brexit snapshot
The British government appears to be on a course moving toward a deal to exit the European Union following critical votes on March 12. Our base case is what we would call the “extend and pretend” scenario: the government will likely ask for an extension of Article 50 until mid-to-late June of this year from a scheduled departure of March 29. … READ MORE >