In this issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas reviews leading indicators of economic activity as the United States heads into the late innings of this current business cycle. … READ MORE >
Economics
US employment report–April springs ahead
A dynamic U.S. labor market did not disappoint in April as the private sector created 236,000 new jobs and government added 27,000 for a net gain of 263,000 on the month. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the lowest since December 1969. Upward revisions to the previous two months resulted in a total change in employment of 279,000, well above the 169,000 three-month average. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise to 230,000
First-time jobless claims increased to 230,000 for the week ending April 26, well above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average of 217,100. … READ MORE >
Fed policy bumps up against muted inflation expectations: Data point to ‘lower for longer’ inflation
The Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting featured an in-depth discussion around risks to the economic outlook from falling inflation and current inflation expectations. The central bank’s current policy framework has set a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, core inflation has eased to 1.6 percent, well below the Fed’s target, while … … READ MORE >
ISM manufacturing survey points toward further moderation
Those looking for stabilization in the downward trajectory of U.S. manufacturing sentiment will have to wait until mid-year.The April 2019 Institute for Supply Management Report on Business – an important gauge of U.S. factories – arrived below expectations with the top line index slowing to 52.8 from 55.3, the weakest level since late 2016. … READ MORE >
ADP private sector payroll estimate: Strong gains in middle market hiring
The ADP April estimate of private sector hiring released on Wednesday pointed to strong hiring by middle market businesses amid robust service sector and goods producing sector hiring. … READ MORE >
April U.S. employment preview: another solid month of labor market growth
We expect the U.S. labor market to expand by 207,000 jobs in April, on the back of strong expansion in construction, trade, transport and service sector hiring, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8 percent. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Real economy in focus at Fed
The Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May 1 meeting this week. The committee will also likely update its statement to reflect recent economic data releases and reiterate a focus on inflation that continues to run below the central bank’s 2 percent target. … READ MORE >
Tech is taking hold in Canada–The Real Economy, Canada has the story
Either by federal and local government promotion of technology or the invisible hand of capitalism, technology has taken hold in cities throughout Canada. The knock-on benefits to local economies as tech industries establish footholds include: the revitalization of city life; increased tax revenue that can be applied to improvements in infrastructure; increased demand for better education and cultural facilities; and demographic shifts to complement the existing labor force. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows slightly more pressure ahead of elections
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at -0.01 from -0.16 a week earlier, showing a slight increase in stress as the markets corrected after a holiday lull. … READ MORE >