The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. Analysis of the payroll data outside of the traditional focus on the latest monthly number shows some cracks in the decade-long recovery from the 2007-09 Great Recession, pointing to long-term issues that will likely need to be addressed by monetary and fiscal policymakers. … READ MORE >
Economics
Monitoring financial risk during pandemics
Global market participants have priced in the reopening of the Chinese economy on or around February 10, while the World Health Organization has cautioned that it is too early to declare the virus is at its peak. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Traders hedge their bets
One week into Brexit, the foreign exchange and fixed-income markets are showing signs of doubt and perhaps the beginning of a hedge on a bet that the government can quickly renegotiate its trade agreements with the world and that the British economy will be left better off. … READ MORE >
Jobs report: Strong growth amid slow wage gains, but uncertainties remain
The economy began the year with a strong pace of growth in the labor market, generating 225,000 jobs, but uncertainties point to modest activity ahead. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, so do risks to the global supply chain
As the potential for the coronavirus to become a pandemic looms, the outbreak is starting to affect the supply chains of critical industries across the globe. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect slightly slower hiring in January
We expect the economy to generate 155,000 new jobs in the January 2020 employment report, somewhat slower than the 176,000 monthly average observed in 2019. … READ MORE >
Hospitality industry braces for the worst as coronavirus spreads
As the human and economic toll of the coronavirus continues to mount, the hospitality industry is bracing for the worst. On Jan. 30, the World Health Organization cautioned against non-essential travel to China after declaring the outbreak a public health emergency. Major airlines quickly responded, as British Airways, United, Delta … … READ MORE >
Economics of a global health crisis
Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global risks. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve brings dovish tint to statement as consumption downgraded
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee attempted to thread the needle in its January meeting by maintaining its existing policy rate while acknowledging moderating real consumption. … READ MORE >