U.S. economic output for the first three months of 2019 expanded at a strong 3.2 percent pace, despite a slowdown in household consumption to 1.2 percent, headwinds from the external sector, a lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. … READ MORE >
Economics
Wholesale gasoline prices point to 8% rise in retail costs in time for summer holidays
U.S. consumers are likely to feel a modest jolt in commuting costs, as wholesale gasoline futures now point to an 8 percent rise in retail gasoline prices in coming days, with risk of a much more pronounced increase to follow.The surge is due to non-market derived pricing action caused by a recent policy shift from Washington on waivers around imports of Iranian oil. … READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary … … READ MORE >
RSM offers a new index to measure Canadian financial conditions
RSM Canada has developed a quarterly index of Canadian financial conditions, using marketassessments of risk and accommodation as a proxy for lending and borrowing attitudes. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases ahead of holiday weekend
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished lower for the week at -0.16 from -0.09 a week earlier, following a recent extension for Britain’s imminent departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
Government offers further clarity in opportunity zone regulations
The U.S. Department of the Treasury released its latest set of regulatory guidelines on opportunity zones on Wednesday, offering significantly more clarity about the program, which provides tax incentives to developers entering geographic areas slated for improvement. Real estate investors appear to be getting everything they want from the program. … READ MORE >
U.S. trade balance narrows, bolstering Q1 ’19 GDP expectations
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $49.3 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January, impacted by one-time factors in the aerospace and agriculture industries.The deficit—which represents an eight-month low—boosted our first-quarter GDP estimate by 0.4 percent to 1.9 percent. … READ MORE >
The impact of auto tariffs–The Real Economy explores
On Feb. 17, the U.S. Commerce Department began an investigation under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 into whether there are national security implications tied to $360 billion in auto imports, including vehicles and parts. If the result leads to a 25 percent tariff on those import, it would be equivalent to a $90 billion tax on U.S. producers and consumers. … READ MORE >
RSM launches Canadian edition of The Real Economy
In the inaugural issue of The Real Economy, Canada, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas closely examines the primary drivers of growth for 2019, which include modest consumer spending, government expenditures, and an economy bolstered by an increase in business investment. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Decline implies conditions support improved UK economic growth
The RSM Brexit Stress Index declined to -0.08 from 0.41 the prior week due to the extension to Oct. 31 of the UK’s potential exit from the European Union. The index has made a two-standard-deviation move since early December, 2018; the trend implies broader financial conditions supportive of growth sorely needed in the UK economy, which has been stuck near a one-percent growth trend. … READ MORE >