The U.S. economy most likely expanded near a 1.7% output in the fourth quarter of 2019, near its long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% and just below the 2.1% consensus forecast. … READ MORE >
Economics
Federal Reserve meeting suddenly becomes interesting as coronavirus spreads
What was shaping up as one of the most boring policy rate decisions in some time has suddenly gained a measure of uncertainty because of investor concern about the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Holding interest rates steady, Bank of Canada keeps the door open for a cut
The tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy statement would imply that it stands ready to cut rates to bolster the domestic economy should growth slow. … READ MORE >
USMCA is a solid opportunity for the middle market
The pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, includes a chapter dedicated to small and medium enterprises – a first for a multilateral trade agreement – and also adopts a wide array of provisions from the abrogated Trans Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Both of these provisions are major wins. … READ MORE >
The Bank of Canada’s dilemma — stability versus rate cut
While maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75% would appear to be prudent at the very least, we would argue that the Bank of Canada should strongly consider cutting rates in the near term. … READ MORE >
Retail sales close out year on a positive note
The health of the American consumer remains strong as outlays on retail sales closed out the year on a positive note with plenty of room for upward revisions. U.S. December advance retail sales increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and was up 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Women outnumber men in the workforce, and the middle market must adapt
The December U.S. Employment Report provided a sign that the U.S. labor market, economy and the basic relationship between work and the individual has now reached tipping point. Women now outnumber men in the workforce by 50.04% to 49.96%. … READ MORE >
Canada added 35,200 jobs in December, exceeding estimates
The Canadian economy added 35,200 jobs in December, significantly greater than the 25,000 expected by economists. This partially offsets the 71,000 job losses in November’s Statistics Canada labor market survey. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to reach 5.6%, near the historic low of 5.5% last recorded in October of last year. … READ MORE >
U.S. added 145,000 jobs in December as women now outnumber men in the workforce
Hiring in the economy closed out the year with a gain of 145,000 jobs in December, making for a overall increase of 2.1 million in 2019, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That figure represents a modest decline compared to a gain of 2.7 million in 2018 and is down from the cyclical high of a little more than 3 million jobs added in 2014. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect a cooler December
We expect a net gain of 145,000 in December hiring with downside risk linked to late-year seasonal adjustments and a slower pace of hiring. This slower pace is implied by the hiring data within the ISM Service Sector report and an accelerating pace of contraction within the ISM Manufacturing survey. … READ MORE >