The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
Economics
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
Private equity looks for recession-proof deals
These are flush times for American private equity funds. Through November, they have raised more capital than any other fiscal year. But a good portion of that cash has not been put to use – yet. One reason is that many takeover targets have simply become too expensive, a dynamic … … READ MORE >
Expect a solid jobs report on Friday, despite manufacturing’s weakness
The November nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday, and despite early reports of softness in manufacturing, we still expect a net increase in total employment of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6%, thanks to a healthier service sector. … READ MORE >
As global economy slows, populism looms as long-term threat
The global economy has been buffeted recently by trade tensions between United States and China and slowing growth. But a greater risk looms around the world in the form of rising populism that threatens to unravel the postwar economic order, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity declines for fourth straight month, ISM report shows
American factory activity declined for the fourth straight month in November as sluggish global growth and continued uncertainty over trade issues took their toll, according a key gauge released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.
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RSM Brexit Stress Index continues to ease
Stress in the British financial markets has been easing in the three weeks since the election announcement, continuing a holding pattern of sorts until there is more clarity on the political and economic fronts. … READ MORE >
Early signals show continued decline for the leading indicator
Analysts are forecasting that Thursday’s release of the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator of U.S. growth will show a 0.2% decline for October, the third month in a row of negative growth. … READ MORE >
Looking to 2020: Consumer is king amid slowing growth
The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. industrial production falls a sharp 0.8% in October
While auto production will undoubtedly rebound in November, the problems at Boeing surrounding the 737 Max and the uncertainty tax imposed on firms caused by the trade conflict with China have knocked the air out of domestic industrial production. … READ MORE >