Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Spending slowing as consumers navigate uncertainty
We expect a 0.3% increase in personal spending in June as consumers increase outlays following the 0.1% decline in May. … READ MORE >
Tariff pause buoys trade data amid warning signs in labor and spending
A sharp narrowing of the goods trade deficit in June will most likely provide a boost to second-quarter gross domestic product, but the headline number masks underlying economic fragility. Labor market activity slowed notably during the month, and signs of weakening consumer demand suggest more turbulence ahead, even as confidence … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Stagflation and dissent at the FOMC
We expect the federal funds rate to remain in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the FOMC meeting this week and we do not expect Chairman Jerome Powell to imply that a September rate cut is in the cards either. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The widening gap between equities and the real economy
Equities have become priced to perfection recently, fueled by bank and tech earnings that have exceeded expectations. … READ MORE >
Volatile capital spending reflects tariff turbulence
Core business spending on equipment had another month of volatility, with orders falling by a sizable 0.7% in June. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private domestic demand excluding trade and inventories will point the way on GDP
U.S. growth in the second quarter most likely advanced at a 2.5% rate following the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims decline, but the recovery is still uneven
Initial claims fell to 217,000 for the week ending July 18, down from 221,000 in the prior week. The pre-pandemic average was 218,000.. … READ MORE >
Inventories in an age of uncertainty
Inventory expansion continued to moderate in May after peaking earlier in the year as firms pulled forward economic activity to avoid tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Shipping activity remains lower at U.S. seaports
Higher tariffs have taken a toll on shipping activity at American ports. But oil and natural exports have provided a steadying influence on exports. … READ MORE >