Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Economics
Global central bank outlook: Divergent paths on rates
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
U.S. June jobs report: Do not judge a book by its cover
Outside of a one-time, non-replicable increase of 80,000 state and local jobs in June, the labor market, like the economy, is cooling. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canadians and Europeans ice out U.S. on travel
In the first five months of this year, the number of international visitors dropped by 12% in March and 3% in May. … READ MORE >
Tariffs weigh on manufacturing but not services yet
Manufacturing sentiment contracted for the fourth month in a row with tariffs being the primary concern among businesses. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. June jobs report preview
We forecast an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls when the report for June is released on Thursday, down from 139,000 in May, and an increase to 4.3% in the unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Demographics of the foreign-born labor force
Last year, foreign-born workers accounted for 19.2% of the U.S. civilian labor force, up from 18.6% in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Cooler spending and inflation data reflect slowing economy
May income, spending and inflation data points toward a consumer adjusting to a more challenging economic environment and should dampen talk of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of appointing a shadow Fed chair
Such an appointment would cut against the grain of Fed independence and its institutional credibility developed over the past half century. … READ MORE >
Mixed economic data points to bumpy road ahead
Looking forward, expect more volatility in June from geopolitical tensions and in July when the tariff pause expires. … READ MORE >