The American economy closed out last year on an upbeat note, finishing with a 6.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted annualized pace, according to Commerce Department data released on Thursday. For the full year, growth advanced by 5.7%, the strongest rate since 1984. The increase was driven by a strong rebound in the ... READ MORE >
x-Featured
Economic growth is running out of steam, RSM data shows
The U.S. economy likely grew at a 2.0% yearly rate in July and August, a drop from the 2.3% yearly rate of U.S. real GDP growth in the first quarter, according to the RSM US Real GDP Index (see chart below). (The index is based on a subset of indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research.) So far the domestic economy has absorbed two ... READ MORE >
Trade war takes dangerous turn toward currency wars: What could happen next?
Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities permitted the yuan early this week to slip below the important psychological level of 7 to the dollar for the first time since 2008. It was a retaliatory measure by China against President Trump’s threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese exports, beginning Sept. 1. The Chinese government ... READ MORE >
US July employment report: “A Gentleman’s C”
Downward revisions to the May and June estimate of total employment as well as a decline in total and aggregate hours worked cast a pall over a total change in July employment of 123,000 (164,000 top line less net downward revision of 41,000) and the unemployment rate that held steady at 3.7%. While job gains were solid in manufacturing, goods production, ... READ MORE >
US employment preview: hiring deceleration amid steady unemployment rate
The U.S. economy likely generated roughly 150,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The July employment report—due to be released by the government Friday—is traditionally impacted by seasonal adjustments that will likely include sharp slowing in education and government hiring along with a notable pick up in leisure and ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts interest rates with another cut likely in September
Reductions or increases in U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate are often like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil; they may get the job done but the fallout is always widespread and sure to cause a commotion. So it is with today’s rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee sought to provide a cushion to a rapidly deteriorating global economic ... READ MORE >
Demand for manufacturing workers remains robust, despite May’s decline in U.S. job openings
Manufacturing positions in the United States are among the hardest to fill as the labor market remains tight, a key government report released on Tuesday shows. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Department of Labor shows that manufacturing sector vacancies rose to a record 509,000 in May, from 496,000 in April. The numbers suggest that ... READ MORE >
Wage growth and the end of business cycles
Wage growth during the current business cycle has been weak compared to the past several economic expansions. The May U.S. employment report implied a growth rate in wages of 3.1%, which was accompanied by a 2.73% three-month average annualized pace, pointing to broader deceleration in the growth of overall wages. Both metrics have declined for the past ... READ MORE >
Jobs report clunker puts June rate cut on the table
An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. While topline hiring showed a net gain of 75,000 jobs, there was noticeable ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: strong top line, focus on manufacturing employment
The focus of the May employment report will likely provide a contrast between underlying strength in the top line, which we expect to show a gain of 175,000 jobs in the month and the slowing of hiring in the manufacturing sector, which has produced a net gain of only 12,000 jobs over the past three months. Given the quick escalation in the multi-front ... READ MORE >