Expectations around the July CPI data imply a 0.1% monthly increase in the top-line number and a 3.4% annual increase. … READ MORE >
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Market Minute: Baby boomers and Gen X leave the workforce
The aging of the population, along with restrictive immigration policies, are having a significant impact on the supply side of the labor market. … READ MORE >
Seasonal distortions offer misguided look at U.S. labor market conditions
The U.S. economy is in a good spot heading into the second half of 2026 as the labor market is at full employment while job growth and wages do not imply second-round risks to the economy via the inflation channel. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economic tides are turning following July’s jobs report
Canada added 75,000 jobs in July, which vastly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest in two years. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Lagging wages are the root of the affordability crisis
Although core inflation looks a bit more benign than topline inflation, RSM expects July’s U.S. labor data to reflect flat growth in real wages amid an ongoing affordability crisis. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What’s behind the U.S. labor market strength?
Since December 2024, 594,000 jobs have been created in health care and 411,000 in social assistance, much of it to serve an aging population. … READ MORE >
Job openings ease in June but remain solid
The headline number on job openings edged down a bit in June, but underneath the surface, the labor market still looks very healthy. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why did Japan and the U.S. prop up the yen?
Japan wanted to prevent a disorderly depreciation of the yen. The U.S. wanted to suppress the increase in Treasury yields and avoid a selloff by Japan. But it won’t last. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Natural gas prices, not oil, pose bigger inflation risk in UK
If wholesale natural gas prices were to surge again, UK inflation could climb back above 4% and remain elevated throughout much of 2027. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The Warsh effect and U.S. financial conditions
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says he wants the financial markets to figure it all out without the forward guidance of the Fed. … READ MORE >