We forecast an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls when the report for June is released on Thursday, down from 139,000 in May, and an increase to 4.3% in the unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
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Market Minute: Demographics of the foreign-born labor force
Last year, foreign-born workers accounted for 19.2% of the U.S. civilian labor force, up from 18.6% in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Cooler spending and inflation data reflect slowing economy
May income, spending and inflation data points toward a consumer adjusting to a more challenging economic environment and should dampen talk of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of appointing a shadow Fed chair
Such an appointment would cut against the grain of Fed independence and its institutional credibility developed over the past half century. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar depreciation disrupts its safe-haven status
The American dollar has depreciated against all 14 major trading currencies as investors diversify away from risk associated with dollar-denominated assets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shocks and inflation expectations
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >
Canadian housing data shows growing imbalances amid economic tension
Canada’s housing starts appear steady at first glance—but below that surface-level stability, there are growing imbalances at the provincial level. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s trade diversification away from U.S. as tariff pain remains
Canada’s latest trade data provides an indicator of the diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets as tariff tensions continue to simmer between the longtime trade partners. In March, Canada’s merchandise exports to countries other than the U.S. surged by 24.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis—the second-largest increase in recorded … … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 2.75% as uncertainty mounts
The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate amid rising inflation expectations and trade policy uncertainty. The bank will need to consider growth over inflation concerns as recession risks rise. … READ MORE >
Canada’s CPI slows amid rising Buy Canadian movement, cooling global outlook
Canada’s latest consumer price index data shows the influence of the Buy Canadian movement and the effects of global economic uncertainty. … READ MORE >