Real-estate focused private equity funds are sitting on record amounts of dry powder amid stock market volatility and rising property values. That amount reached $345.2 billion in the United States through August 2019, the highest level since research firm Preqin first began to track the data in 2000. … READ MORE >
Real estate
Is the next mortgage bubble imminent? Not so fast, the debt data tells us
There’s no denying that U.S. consumer debt is high. But despite headlines about a pending mortgage crisis not unlike the one that preceded the Great Recession, data shows that the U.S. economy is not yet ready for a “back to the future” scenario, writes RSM Senior Real Estate Analyst and Partner Troy Merkel. … READ MORE >
Low treasury rate is a boost for home builders, neutral for commercial real estate
Bonds have been declining in recent weeks following a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and expectations of further cuts amid rising concerns over an impending recession. Recession concerns were escalated by the inversion of the U.S. and U.K. two- and 10-year yield curves and the fall of 30-year Treasury yields to 2.07%, a record low. While this trend in the bond market will likely drive down the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and translate to more purchasing power for home buyers, it will do little to juice the market for commercial real estate. … READ MORE >
Homebuilder confidence indicators rise but still lag 2018
The homebuilder confidence index rose to 65 in July, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, as a dovish Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates later this month and, potentially two more times by the end of 2019. … READ MORE >
Real estate investors hope for the best, prepare for the worst—KAYO conference
“Economic cycles and real estate cycles don’t die of old age,” writes Laura Dietzel, RSM senior real estate analyst. “Most of the top industry investors, executives and advisors at the (Kayo) conference agreed that the industry currently finds itself in a mature part of the cycle, as property values throughout the country and across asset classes remain richly priced.” … READ MORE >
Cautious builders continue to mute housing supply
Key government housing metrics continue to show year-over-year declines. Housing starts fell 11.2% in May, according to the Commerce Department, while permits declined 3.8%. These numbers strongly imply there will be a fall back toward 1.22 million housing completions on an annualized basis in the coming months. … READ MORE >
Tenants score win with NY rent regulations; laws could signal broader U.S. trend
On June 11, New York State lawmakers passed landmark new rent laws designed to protect the rights of tenants. The biggest impact will be on rent-regulated apartments, … READ MORE >
Homebuilder confidence supported by rise in housing starts
There is good news for the U.S. housing market that saw a rough end to 2018. Domestic housing starts rose 5.7 percent to 1.235 million in April, while permits grew at a more modest 0.5 percent to 1.296 million. The growth was primarily driven in the Northeast and Midwest—drying out … … READ MORE >
Key construction index shows improvement, but builder cost hurdles remain
The National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 66 in May—a seven month high—helped by lower mortgage rates and improved sales of new homes. The increase added momentum to this year’s upward trend following a low at the end of 2018. A reading above 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good than poor. … READ MORE >
Time to get real on GDP and gasoline prices–read The Real Economy
In this issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas reviews leading indicators of economic activity as the United States heads into the late innings of this current business cycle. … READ MORE >