Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
United Kingdom
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
Brexit stress gets reprieve due to Supreme Court ruling
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased slightly during the week, as Britain’s Supreme Court ordered the resumption of Parliament and restored some sort of order to the Brexit chaos.
The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 1.20 standard deviations above normal levels of stress, down from last week’s close at 1.27. While stress remains high, it has retreated from the extreme levels of earlier this month when a constitutional crisis and a clumsy exit appeared inevitable. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Reacting to a Parliamentary dose of recession prevention
The RSM Brexit Stress Index surged sharply during the week amid attempts by Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party prime minister, to curtail objections to a no-deal Brexit but eased at week’s end as Parliament regained control of government. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Factoring in longer-term issues
The RSM Brexit Stress Index ended higher again this week on increased volatility. The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed at 1.74 on Friday from 1.64 a week ago. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moves up amid global financial backlash and domestic slowdown
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved up again in the week, showing significantly higher levels of stress after the United States escalated its trade war with China and the Chinese renminbi was devalued against the U.S. dollar, causing upheaval in the global markets. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Pound’s decline signals rising concern
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose sharply in the week, signaling significant worry in the market following depreciation of the British pound that will result in higher costs for food, fuel and other consumer staples for U.K. residents. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Increased volatility and higher stress as pro-Brexit PM takes Britain’s helm
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week on increased currency market volatility and sobering economic news from the UK’s trading partners as Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit Conservative Party candidate, was elected prime minister. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Adding to the list of unintended consequences
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, as the market processed conflicting central banking trends: global equities pushed higher on an expected U.S. rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a quick turnaround in the U.K. bond market as the slim probability of a base rate cut by the Bank of England grew even smaller. … READ MORE >
Tug-of-(Trade)-War: RSM Brexit Stress Index eases for week
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased this week, as global equity markets pushed higher on news of a rapprochement among the parties in the U.S.-China trade war and anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >