Over the past two years, disinflation in the price of goods, and, in some cases, outright deflation allowed the economy to avoid a recession and for unemployment to decline into what is widely acknowledged as full employment. But this relative price stability is now at risk with the prospect of 25% ... READ MORE >
USA
Initial claims rise slightly as federal layoffs and wildfire impact was muted
The number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose slightly to 219,000 last week, close to our forecast and the pre-pandemic average of 218,000. New claims have trended lower since last August as the 13-week moving average touched 218,000 after peaking at 235,000, a sign that the labor market ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
The Federal Reserve is on the verge of achieving that rarest of economic feats: A soft landing. The rapid disinflation that the Fed has engineered over the past two years mirrors that of the 1990s—the last time the central bank achieved such a difficult feat. That disinflation set the stage for a ... READ MORE >
4 key themes from Bank Director’s Acquire or Be Acquired 2025 conference
Bank Director’s 2025 Acquire or Be Acquired conference in January brought professionals from financial institutions together for an update on the economic landscape and to identify opportunities for growth and innovation. RSM attended the conference and was one of its sponsors. Here are the top themes ... READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge amid severe weather and elevated mortgage rates
Housing starts pulled back in January following a spike in December. The number of starts in January declined by 9.8%, driven by declines in both single-family and multifamily homes. December’s figure was revised upward to 16.1%. The data suggests that the decline was not just a normal pullback from ... READ MORE >
Market minute: The ripple effect of higher European defense spending
The emergency defense summit in Paris on Monday on the eve of negotiations over the war in Ukraine strongly implies that a large increase in defense spending among European Union nations is coming. That outlay may be as large as $3.1 trillion over the next decade, Bloomberg reported. Any such move ... READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. housing supply is not meeting demand
U.S. housing completions have declined from a cyclical high of 1.763 million annually last August to a recent low of 1.544 million. That decline is likely to continue and fall below 1.45 million given that homes under construction ended last year at 1.431 million. Although housing starts are a more ... READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Feb. 10, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here's the latest. GLP-1 drugs may limit patients’ alcohol use Emerging research suggests GLP-1 drugs may help reduce alcohol cravings, with a small Phase 2 trial showing participants with alcohol use disorder cut their ... READ MORE >
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the United States, the new administration has set out to change this equation with nothing less than a rebalancing of the global economy. Today, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. We define ... READ MORE >
The decline in January retail sales is less concerning than it might seem
A combination of factors—including the holiday hangover, seasonal noise, wildfires and severe cold weather—contributed to the downside surprise in retail sales in January. Sales fell by 0.9% on the month with the control group—which feeds into GDP—falling by 0.8%. Even though the data was reported ... READ MORE >